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Politique·Trump

Trump mettra-t-il fin au ministère de l'Éducation avant 2027 ?

Market icon
Politique·Trump

Trump mettra-t-il fin au ministère de l'Éducation avant 2027 ?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Oui

5% chance
Polymarket
NEW

Oui

5% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability that President Trump will not fully end the Department of Education before 2027, driven by entrenched legislative barriers requiring congressional approval to abolish a cabinet-level agency. A March 2025 executive order directed steps toward closure by shifting programs to states and other departments, leading to mass layoffs, interagency transfers like student loans to Treasury, and recent headquarters relocation to a smaller office announced March 27, 2026. However, Congress has repeatedly funded the agency, including a $79 billion fiscal 2026 appropriations bill signed in February, rejecting abolition calls amid competing priorities. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected bipartisan legislation before year-end or post-midterm dynamics, though historical precedents for dissolving cabinet departments remain rare.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability that President Trump will not fully end the Department of Education before 2027, driven by entrenched legislative barriers requiring congressional approval to abolish a cabinet-level agency. A March 2025 executive order directed steps toward closure by shifting programs to states and other departments, leading to mass layoffs, interagency transfers like student loans to Treasury, and recent headquarters relocation to a smaller office announced March 27, 2026. However, Congress has repeatedly funded the agency, including a $79 billion fiscal 2026 appropriations bill signed in February, rejecting abolition calls amid competing priorities. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected bipartisan legislation before year-end or post-midterm dynamics, though historical precedents for dissolving cabinet departments remain rare.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability that President Trump will not fully end the Department of Education before 2027, driven by entrenched legislative barriers requiring congressional approval to abolish a cabinet-level agency. A March 2025 executive order directed steps toward closure by shifting programs to states and other departments, leading to mass layoffs, interagency transfers like student loans to Treasury, and recent headquarters relocation to a smaller office announced March 27, 2026. However, Congress has repeatedly funded the agency, including a $79 billion fiscal 2026 appropriations bill signed in February, rejecting abolition calls amid competing priorities. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected bipartisan legislation before year-end or post-midterm dynamics, though historical precedents for dissolving cabinet departments remain rare.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability that President Trump will not fully end the Department of Education before 2027, driven by entrenched legislative barriers requiring congressional approval to abolish a cabinet-level agency. A March 2025 executive order directed steps toward closure by shifting programs to states and other departments, leading to mass layoffs, interagency transfers like student loans to Treasury, and recent headquarters relocation to a smaller office announced March 27, 2026. However, Congress has repeatedly funded the agency, including a $79 billion fiscal 2026 appropriations bill signed in February, rejecting abolition calls amid competing priorities. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected bipartisan legislation before year-end or post-midterm dynamics, though historical precedents for dissolving cabinet departments remain rare.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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« Trump mettra-t-il fin au ministère de l'Éducation avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Trump mettra-t-il fin au département de l'Éducation avant 2027 ? » à 5%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 5¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 5% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Trump mettra-t-il fin au ministère de l'Éducation avant 2027 ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Nov 19, 2025. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

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C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Trump mettra-t-il fin au ministère de l'Éducation avant 2027 ? » est « Trump mettra-t-il fin au département de l'Éducation avant 2027 ? » à seulement 5%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

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