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Politique·Politique étrangère

Un autre pays reconnaîtra-t-il le Somaliland d'ici le 31 mars ?

Market icon
Politique·Politique étrangère

Un autre pays reconnaîtra-t-il le Somaliland d'ici le 31 mars ?

mars 31

mars 31

Oui

<1% chance
Polymarket

$155,557 Vol.

Oui

<1% chance
Polymarket

$155,557 Vol.

On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's formal recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state on December 26, 2025—the first by any UN member state—sparked speculation of follow-on actions from Ethiopia, UAE, India, Kenya, or Morocco, but none materialized by the March 31, 2026, deadline, driving trader consensus to 100% "No." Somalia's vehement opposition, backed by African Union affirmations of territorial integrity and Organization of Islamic Cooperation condemnations, reinforced diplomatic inertia in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia's 2024 memorandum of understanding for potential sea access stalled amid the 2024 Ankara Declaration reconciling with Mogadishu. Absent verified announcements in the final weeks, markets reflect high confidence in resolution to "No," though unconfirmed late diplomatic notes could prompt review.

On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$155,557
Date de fin
31 mars 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 28, 2025, 6:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Résultat proposé: Non

Fenêtre de contestation

Final

On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's formal recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state on December 26, 2025—the first by any UN member state—sparked speculation of follow-on actions from Ethiopia, UAE, India, Kenya, or Morocco, but none materialized by the March 31, 2026, deadline, driving trader consensus to 100% "No." Somalia's vehement opposition, backed by African Union affirmations of territorial integrity and Organization of Islamic Cooperation condemnations, reinforced diplomatic inertia in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia's 2024 memorandum of understanding for potential sea access stalled amid the 2024 Ankara Declaration reconciling with Mogadishu. Absent verified announcements in the final weeks, markets reflect high confidence in resolution to "No," though unconfirmed late diplomatic notes could prompt review.

On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$155,557
Date de fin
31 mars 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 28, 2025, 6:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Résultat proposé: Non

Fenêtre de contestation

Final

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Un autre pays reconnaîtra-t-il le Somaliland d'ici le 31 mars ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Un autre pays reconnaîtra-t-il le Somaliland d'ici le 31 mars ? » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 0¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 0% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Un autre pays reconnaîtra-t-il le Somaliland d'ici le 31 mars ? » a généré $155.6K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 28, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Un autre pays reconnaîtra-t-il le Somaliland d'ici le 31 mars ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Un autre pays reconnaîtra-t-il le Somaliland d'ici le 31 mars ? » est « Un autre pays reconnaîtra-t-il le Somaliland d'ici le 31 mars ? » à seulement 0%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Un autre pays reconnaîtra-t-il le Somaliland d'ici le 31 mars ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.