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Politique·Trump

Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ?

Market icon
Politique·Trump

Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$329,401 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$329,401 Vol.

Polymarket

David Sacks

$5,210 Vol.

59%

Tulsi Gabbard

$3,185 Vol.

55%

Kristi Noem

$83,278 Vol.

54%

Kash Patel

$112,736 Vol.

48%

John Ratcliffe

$0 Vol.

40%

Pam Bondi

$44,984 Vol.

40%

Dan Scavino

$0 Vol.

39%

Karoline Leavitt

$0 Vol.

39%

Howard Lutnick

$30,893 Vol.

37%

Susie Wiles

$37,894 Vol.

36%

Pete Hegseth

$6,076 Vol.

35%

Scott Bessent

$0 Vol.

19%

Stephen Miller

$0 Vol.

25%

Tom Homan

$0 Vol.

24%

Marco Rubio

$0 Vol.

22%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$0 Vol.

20%

Lee Zeldin

$0 Vol.

17%

Russell Vought

$0 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trump's second-term cabinet nominations, announced primarily in November 2024, have sparked trader interest in early departures before 2027 due to controversies surrounding picks like Pete Hegseth for Defense secretary amid sexual misconduct allegations and RFK Jr. for HHS over vaccine skepticism. No confirmed administration members have exited since inauguration on January 20, 2025, but Senate confirmation hearings—beginning late January for key roles—pose risks of withdrawals, rejections, or holds by Republican senators. Trump's first term featured record-high turnover, with four chiefs of staff and frequent cabinet changes driven by policy disputes, scandals, and performance issues. Upcoming executive actions on immigration and spending cuts could test loyalties and prompt resignations.

Trump's second-term cabinet nominations, announced primarily in November 2024, have sparked trader interest in early departures before 2027 due to controversies surrounding picks like Pete Hegseth for Defense secretary amid sexual misconduct allegations and RFK Jr. for HHS over vaccine skepticism. No confirmed administration members have exited since inauguration on January 20, 2025, but Senate confirmation hearings—beginning late January for key roles—pose risks of withdrawals, rejections, or holds by Republican senators. Trump's first term featured record-high turnover, with four chiefs of staff and frequent cabinet changes driven by policy disputes, scandals, and performance issues. Upcoming executive actions on immigration and spending cuts could test loyalties and prompt resignations.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trump's second-term cabinet nominations, announced primarily in November 2024, have sparked trader interest in early departures before 2027 due to controversies surrounding picks like Pete Hegseth for Defense secretary amid sexual misconduct allegations and RFK Jr. for HHS over vaccine skepticism. No confirmed administration members have exited since inauguration on January 20, 2025, but Senate confirmation hearings—beginning late January for key roles—pose risks of withdrawals, rejections, or holds by Republican senators. Trump's first term featured record-high turnover, with four chiefs of staff and frequent cabinet changes driven by policy disputes, scandals, and performance issues. Upcoming executive actions on immigration and spending cuts could test loyalties and prompt resignations.

Trump's second-term cabinet nominations, announced primarily in November 2024, have sparked trader interest in early departures before 2027 due to controversies surrounding picks like Pete Hegseth for Defense secretary amid sexual misconduct allegations and RFK Jr. for HHS over vaccine skepticism. No confirmed administration members have exited since inauguration on January 20, 2025, but Senate confirmation hearings—beginning late January for key roles—pose risks of withdrawals, rejections, or holds by Republican senators. Trump's first term featured record-high turnover, with four chiefs of staff and frequent cabinet changes driven by policy disputes, scandals, and performance issues. Upcoming executive actions on immigration and spending cuts could test loyalties and prompt resignations.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 19 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Dan Bongino » à 100%, suivi de « David Sacks » à 59%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » a généré $329.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 5, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 19 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » est « Dan Bongino » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « David Sacks » à 59%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.