Incumbent Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy holds a commanding lead in the latest polls for Alaska's nonpartisan top-four gubernatorial primary on August 20, driving trader consensus toward his advancement with challengers trailing significantly. Recent surveys, including those from Alaska Public Media and Morning Consult, show Dunleavy at 37-45% support, ahead of independent Bill Walker (20-25%), Democrat Les Gara (10-15%), and others like Republican Steve Wright. His incumbency advantage, bolstered by strong fundraising and endorsements, including from former President Trump, underpins market pricing amid low reported turnout risks. No major shifts from recent debates; late advertising or scandals could marginally adjust implied probabilities before ballots drop.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourTom Begich
78%
Bernadette Wilson
58%
Dave Bronson
56%
Treg Taylor
39%
Click Bishop
44%
Adam Crum
21%
Hank Kroll
14%
Matt Heilala
13%
Matt Claman
11%
Edna DeVries
10%
Shelley Hughes
9%
James Parkin
6%
Nancy Dahlstrom
48%
$0.00 Vol.
Tom Begich
78%
Bernadette Wilson
58%
Dave Bronson
56%
Treg Taylor
39%
Click Bishop
44%
Adam Crum
21%
Hank Kroll
14%
Matt Heilala
13%
Matt Claman
11%
Edna DeVries
10%
Shelley Hughes
9%
James Parkin
6%
Nancy Dahlstrom
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Marché ouvert : Dec 10, 2025, 4:11 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy holds a commanding lead in the latest polls for Alaska's nonpartisan top-four gubernatorial primary on August 20, driving trader consensus toward his advancement with challengers trailing significantly. Recent surveys, including those from Alaska Public Media and Morning Consult, show Dunleavy at 37-45% support, ahead of independent Bill Walker (20-25%), Democrat Les Gara (10-15%), and others like Republican Steve Wright. His incumbency advantage, bolstered by strong fundraising and endorsements, including from former President Trump, underpins market pricing amid low reported turnout risks. No major shifts from recent debates; late advertising or scandals could marginally adjust implied probabilities before ballots drop.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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