Amid escalating US-Iran conflict, Iranian officials warned the US against a ground invasion during diplomatic talks on March 29, following a March 27 missile strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia that injured 12 American troops and caused significant damage to regional US facilities. Tehran has vowed retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure—including refineries and oil fields—after a Trump ultimatum on March 22, with recent waves of Iranian drone and missile barrages underscoring its strike capacity despite US-Israeli airstrikes. No de-escalation is evident, keeping potential actions by March 31 in focus as IRGC signals readiness for further military escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourQu'est-ce que l'Iran frappera d'ici le 31 mars ?
Qu'est-ce que l'Iran frappera d'ici le 31 mars ?
$460,136 Vol.
Dimona (Centre de Recherche Nucléaire du Néguev Shimon Peres)
3%
Burj Khalifa
2%
Champ de Ghawar
7%
Champ de Safaniya
9%
Installation de traitement du pétrole d'Abqaiq
9%
Raffinerie d'Al Zour
9%
Leviathan Field
8%
Khurais Field
13%
Ras Tanura
6%
East–West Pipeline
5%
Champ/Habshan Complexe de traitement
10%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
11%
$460,136 Vol.
Dimona (Centre de Recherche Nucléaire du Néguev Shimon Peres)
$255,055 Vol.
3%
Burj Khalifa
$1,349 Vol.
2%
Champ de Ghawar
$30,748 Vol.
7%
Champ de Safaniya
$39,892 Vol.
9%
Installation de traitement du pétrole d'Abqaiq
$39,570 Vol.
9%
Raffinerie d'Al Zour
$74,766 Vol.
9%
Leviathan Field
$1,246 Vol.
8%
Khurais Field
$4,997 Vol.
13%
Ras Tanura
$4,553 Vol.
6%
East–West Pipeline
$1,506 Vol.
5%
Champ/Habshan Complexe de traitement
$1,074 Vol.
10%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$5,377 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Iran conflict, Iranian officials warned the US against a ground invasion during diplomatic talks on March 29, following a March 27 missile strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia that injured 12 American troops and caused significant damage to regional US facilities. Tehran has vowed retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure—including refineries and oil fields—after a Trump ultimatum on March 22, with recent waves of Iranian drone and missile barrages underscoring its strike capacity despite US-Israeli airstrikes. No de-escalation is evident, keeping potential actions by March 31 in focus as IRGC signals readiness for further military escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$460,136Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Iran conflict, Iranian officials warned the US against a ground invasion during diplomatic talks on March 29, following a March 27 missile strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia that injured 12 American troops and caused significant damage to regional US facilities. Tehran has vowed retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure—including refineries and oil fields—after a Trump ultimatum on March 22, with recent waves of Iranian drone and missile barrages underscoring its strike capacity despite US-Israeli airstrikes. No de-escalation is evident, keeping potential actions by March 31 in focus as IRGC signals readiness for further military escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$460,136Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Iran conflict, Iranian officials warned the US against a ground invasion during diplomatic talks on March 29, following a March 27 missile strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia that injured 12 American troops and caused significant damage to regional US facilities. Tehran has vowed retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure—including refineries and oil fields—after a Trump ultimatum on March 22, with recent waves of Iranian drone and missile barrages underscoring its strike capacity despite US-Israeli airstrikes. No de-escalation is evident, keeping potential actions by March 31 in focus as IRGC signals readiness for further military escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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