Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 58.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven primarily by the April 21 referendum on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democrat-controlled General Assembly to redraw congressional maps for 2026–2030 cycles. Proposed maps shift VA-01 from lean Republican to likely Democratic territory, capitalizing on 2025 off-year gains like Gov. Abigail Spanberger's victory and stronger Democratic performance district-wide. Incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman (R) faces a competitive race, per Cook Political Report's recent downgrade from Likely to Lean Republican, amid a crowded Democratic primary featuring Henrico prosecutor Shannon Taylor, endorsed by New Dems this week. Mixed referendum polls and stronger early GOP turnout introduce uncertainty ahead of the August 4 primaries and November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVA-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
VA-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$12,879 Vol.
$12,879 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Parti démocrate
69%
Parti républicain
33%
$12,879 Vol.
$12,879 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Parti démocrate
$12,582 Vol.
69%
Parti républicain
$297 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 58.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven primarily by the April 21 referendum on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democrat-controlled General Assembly to redraw congressional maps for 2026–2030 cycles. Proposed maps shift VA-01 from lean Republican to likely Democratic territory, capitalizing on 2025 off-year gains like Gov. Abigail Spanberger's victory and stronger Democratic performance district-wide. Incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman (R) faces a competitive race, per Cook Political Report's recent downgrade from Likely to Lean Republican, amid a crowded Democratic primary featuring Henrico prosecutor Shannon Taylor, endorsed by New Dems this week. Mixed referendum polls and stronger early GOP turnout introduce uncertainty ahead of the August 4 primaries and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$12,879Date de fin
Nov 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 58.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven primarily by the April 21 referendum on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democrat-controlled General Assembly to redraw congressional maps for 2026–2030 cycles. Proposed maps shift VA-01 from lean Republican to likely Democratic territory, capitalizing on 2025 off-year gains like Gov. Abigail Spanberger's victory and stronger Democratic performance district-wide. Incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman (R) faces a competitive race, per Cook Political Report's recent downgrade from Likely to Lean Republican, amid a crowded Democratic primary featuring Henrico prosecutor Shannon Taylor, endorsed by New Dems this week. Mixed referendum polls and stronger early GOP turnout introduce uncertainty ahead of the August 4 primaries and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,879Date de fin
Nov 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 58.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven primarily by the April 21 referendum on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democrat-controlled General Assembly to redraw congressional maps for 2026–2030 cycles. Proposed maps shift VA-01 from lean Republican to likely Democratic territory, capitalizing on 2025 off-year gains like Gov. Abigail Spanberger's victory and stronger Democratic performance district-wide. Incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman (R) faces a competitive race, per Cook Political Report's recent downgrade from Likely to Lean Republican, amid a crowded Democratic primary featuring Henrico prosecutor Shannon Taylor, endorsed by New Dems this week. Mixed referendum polls and stronger early GOP turnout introduce uncertainty ahead of the August 4 primaries and November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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