Amid heightened US-Iran hostilities involving airstrikes on Iranian targets and control over the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump circulated a 15-point ceasefire framework via Pakistani mediators last week, prompting Iran to reject it while countering with strict demands and agreeing to conditional mediation talks as recently as yesterday. Trump extended a 10-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure to encourage negotiations, yet escalatory rhetoric persists, including US suggestions of seizing Kharg Island and Iranian threats that any ground troops would face immediate retaliation. Pakistan stands ready to host direct talks, with upcoming responses to proposals likely to sway trader consensus on de-escalation prospects before the market deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourUS x Iran cessez-le-feu d'ici le... ?
US x Iran cessez-le-feu d'ici le... ?
$61,964,666 Vol.
31 mars
1%
7 avril
9%
15 avril
17%
30 avril
32%
31 mai
48%
30 juin
61%
31 décembre
74%
$61,964,666 Vol.
31 mars
$39,103,304 Vol.
1%
7 avril
$1,467,485 Vol.
9%
15 avril
$6,033,706 Vol.
17%
30 avril
$6,712,053 Vol.
32%
31 mai
$2,271,802 Vol.
48%
30 juin
$2,353,852 Vol.
61%
31 décembre
$532,910 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid heightened US-Iran hostilities involving airstrikes on Iranian targets and control over the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump circulated a 15-point ceasefire framework via Pakistani mediators last week, prompting Iran to reject it while countering with strict demands and agreeing to conditional mediation talks as recently as yesterday. Trump extended a 10-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure to encourage negotiations, yet escalatory rhetoric persists, including US suggestions of seizing Kharg Island and Iranian threats that any ground troops would face immediate retaliation. Pakistan stands ready to host direct talks, with upcoming responses to proposals likely to sway trader consensus on de-escalation prospects before the market deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$61,964,666Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid heightened US-Iran hostilities involving airstrikes on Iranian targets and control over the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump circulated a 15-point ceasefire framework via Pakistani mediators last week, prompting Iran to reject it while countering with strict demands and agreeing to conditional mediation talks as recently as yesterday. Trump extended a 10-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure to encourage negotiations, yet escalatory rhetoric persists, including US suggestions of seizing Kharg Island and Iranian threats that any ground troops would face immediate retaliation. Pakistan stands ready to host direct talks, with upcoming responses to proposals likely to sway trader consensus on de-escalation prospects before the market deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$61,964,666Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Amid heightened US-Iran hostilities involving airstrikes on Iranian targets and control over the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump circulated a 15-point ceasefire framework via Pakistani mediators last week, prompting Iran to reject it while countering with strict demands and agreeing to conditional mediation talks as recently as yesterday. Trump extended a 10-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure to encourage negotiations, yet escalatory rhetoric persists, including US suggestions of seizing Kharg Island and Iranian threats that any ground troops would face immediate retaliation. Pakistan stands ready to host direct talks, with upcoming responses to proposals likely to sway trader consensus on de-escalation prospects before the market deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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