A month into the US-Israeli war with Iran—sparked by February 28 airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against persistent military actions. The Trump administration delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt proxy attacks, but Tehran dismissed it as unreasonable and issued counter-demands including compensation and strike cessation. President Trump extended a pause on Iranian energy infrastructure strikes until April 6, claiming talks progress, while Iran warned against US ground invasions amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Tehran and US troop deployments. Pakistan offered to host direct US-Iran negotiations, with a four-nation diplomatic push yesterday signaling potential de-escalation, though rejection risks further escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourUS x Iran cessez-le-feu d'ici le... ?
US x Iran cessez-le-feu d'ici le... ?
$61,571,018 Vol.
31 mars
2%
7 avril
8%
15 avril
17%
30 avril
33%
31 mai
48%
30 juin
59%
31 décembre
75%
$61,571,018 Vol.
31 mars
$38,877,068 Vol.
2%
7 avril
$1,407,804 Vol.
8%
15 avril
$5,991,664 Vol.
17%
30 avril
$6,685,349 Vol.
33%
31 mai
$2,260,036 Vol.
48%
30 juin
$2,347,277 Vol.
59%
31 décembre
$512,671 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A month into the US-Israeli war with Iran—sparked by February 28 airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against persistent military actions. The Trump administration delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt proxy attacks, but Tehran dismissed it as unreasonable and issued counter-demands including compensation and strike cessation. President Trump extended a pause on Iranian energy infrastructure strikes until April 6, claiming talks progress, while Iran warned against US ground invasions amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Tehran and US troop deployments. Pakistan offered to host direct US-Iran negotiations, with a four-nation diplomatic push yesterday signaling potential de-escalation, though rejection risks further escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$61,571,018Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A month into the US-Israeli war with Iran—sparked by February 28 airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against persistent military actions. The Trump administration delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt proxy attacks, but Tehran dismissed it as unreasonable and issued counter-demands including compensation and strike cessation. President Trump extended a pause on Iranian energy infrastructure strikes until April 6, claiming talks progress, while Iran warned against US ground invasions amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Tehran and US troop deployments. Pakistan offered to host direct US-Iran negotiations, with a four-nation diplomatic push yesterday signaling potential de-escalation, though rejection risks further escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$61,571,018Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
A month into the US-Israeli war with Iran—sparked by February 28 airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against persistent military actions. The Trump administration delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt proxy attacks, but Tehran dismissed it as unreasonable and issued counter-demands including compensation and strike cessation. President Trump extended a pause on Iranian energy infrastructure strikes until April 6, claiming talks progress, while Iran warned against US ground invasions amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Tehran and US troop deployments. Pakistan offered to host direct US-Iran negotiations, with a four-nation diplomatic push yesterday signaling potential de-escalation, though rejection risks further escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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