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Géopolitique·Moyen-Orient

Les États-Unis frappent l'Iran par... ?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Moyen-Orient

Les États-Unis frappent l'Iran par... ?

Ended: Jun 30

Ended: Jun 30

$529,033,417 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026
Polymarket

$529,033,417 Vol.

Polymarket

31 décembre

$19,193 Vol.

Non

11 janvier

$3,035,454 Vol.

Non

12 janvier

$1,743,135 Vol.

Non

13 janvier

$3,335,543 Vol.

Non

14 janvier

$13,619,742 Vol.

Non

15 janvier

$7,975,002 Vol.

Non

16 janvier

$8,491,723 Vol.

Non

17 janvier

$3,823,998 Vol.

Non

18 janvier

$5,468,913 Vol.

Non

23 janvier

$12,296,618 Vol.

Non

24 janvier

$2,924,662 Vol.

Non

25 janvier

$2,703,692 Vol.

Non

26 janvier

$6,908,538 Vol.

Non

27 janvier

$2,498,074 Vol.

Non

28 janvier

$1,950,685 Vol.

Non

29 janvier

$3,064,539 Vol.

Non

30 janvier

$3,469,659 Vol.

Non

31 janvier

$41,754,060 Vol.

Non

1er février

$6,629,658 Vol.

Non

2 février

$4,246,232 Vol.

Non

3 février

$3,763,165 Vol.

Non

4 février

$3,844,340 Vol.

Non

5 février

$4,461,531 Vol.

Non

6 février

$9,750,256 Vol.

Non

7 février

$3,615,405 Vol.

Non

8 février

$3,821,142 Vol.

Non

9 février

$17,561,112 Vol.

Non

10 février

$10,496,937 Vol.

Non

11 février

$4,493,524 Vol.

Non

12 février

$4,187,886 Vol.

Non

13 février

$15,146,244 Vol.

Non

14 février

$4,140,716 Vol.

Non

15 février

$4,542,348 Vol.

Non

16 février

$4,855,990 Vol.

Non

17 février

$5,599,406 Vol.

Non

18 février

$7,408,763 Vol.

Non

19 février

$8,798,853 Vol.

Non

20 février

$18,810,054 Vol.

Non

21 février

$12,250,013 Vol.

Non

22 février

$12,611,170 Vol.

Non

23 février

$14,022,419 Vol.

Non

24 février

$16,942,274 Vol.

Non

25 février

$10,517,389 Vol.

Non

26 février

$14,489,547 Vol.

Non

27 février

$25,087,849 Vol.

Non

28 février

$89,652,867 Vol.

Oui

1er mars

$8,093,539 Vol.

Oui

2 mars

$3,812,922 Vol.

Oui

3 mars

$1,917,863 Vol.

Oui

4 mars

$1,376,485 Vol.

Oui

5 mars

$1,565,799 Vol.

Oui

6 mars

$1,008,204 Vol.

Oui

7 mars

$2,470,666 Vol.

Oui

8 mars

$539,454 Vol.

Oui

9 mars

$379,810 Vol.

Oui

10 mars

$269,970 Vol.

Oui

11 mars

$190,483 Vol.

Oui

12 mars

$197,658 Vol.

Oui

13 mars

$283,107 Vol.

Oui

14 mars

$357,946 Vol.

Oui

15 mars

$6,642,886 Vol.

Oui

31 mars

$22,213,247 Vol.

Oui

30 juin

$9,193,272 Vol.

Oui

31 décembre

$1,689,785 Vol.

Oui

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$529,033,417
Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 26, 2026, 5:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Les États-Unis frappent l'Iran par... ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 64+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "28 février" at 100%, followed by "1er mars" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Les États-Unis frappent l'Iran par... ?" has generated $529 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Les États-Unis frappent l'Iran par... ?," browse the 64+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Les États-Unis frappent l'Iran par... ?" is "28 février" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1er mars" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Les États-Unis frappent l'Iran par... ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.