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Géopolitique·Trump

Les forces américaines entrent en Iran par... ?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Trump

Les forces américaines entrent en Iran par... ?

$52,256,701 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$52,256,701 Vol.

Polymarket

31 mars

$35,937,500 Vol.

7%

30 avril

$8,471,956 Vol.

69%

31 décembre

$5,788,175 Vol.

78%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military targets, ongoing since late February under Operation Epic Fury, have prompted massive US troop deployments exceeding 50,000 personnel—including Marines, the 82nd Airborne, and armored units—elevating trader consensus to 68% implied probability for US forces entering Iran by April 30. President Trump's March 30 remarks on seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal underscore ground operation considerations to cripple exports and enforce ceasefires, amid first US casualties and Iran's rejection of a 15-point US peace proposal. On March 29, Iran's parliament speaker accused the US of plotting a ground assault despite Pakistan-hosted diplomatic talks this week, fueling 8% odds for entry by March 31 while highlighting escalation risks absent de-escalation breakthroughs.

US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military targets, ongoing since late February under Operation Epic Fury, have prompted massive US troop deployments exceeding 50,000 personnel—including Marines, the 82nd Airborne, and armored units—elevating trader consensus to 68% implied probability for US forces entering Iran by April 30. President Trump's March 30 remarks on seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal underscore ground operation considerations to cripple exports and enforce ceasefires, amid first US casualties and Iran's rejection of a 15-point US peace proposal. On March 29, Iran's parliament speaker accused the US of plotting a ground assault despite Pakistan-hosted diplomatic talks this week, fueling 8% odds for entry by March 31 while highlighting escalation risks absent de-escalation breakthroughs.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military targets, ongoing since late February under Operation Epic Fury, have prompted massive US troop deployments exceeding 50,000 personnel—including Marines, the 82nd Airborne, and armored units—elevating trader consensus to 68% implied probability for US forces entering Iran by April 30. President Trump's March 30 remarks on seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal underscore ground operation considerations to cripple exports and enforce ceasefires, amid first US casualties and Iran's rejection of a 15-point US peace proposal. On March 29, Iran's parliament speaker accused the US of plotting a ground assault despite Pakistan-hosted diplomatic talks this week, fueling 8% odds for entry by March 31 while highlighting escalation risks absent de-escalation breakthroughs.

US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military targets, ongoing since late February under Operation Epic Fury, have prompted massive US troop deployments exceeding 50,000 personnel—including Marines, the 82nd Airborne, and armored units—elevating trader consensus to 68% implied probability for US forces entering Iran by April 30. President Trump's March 30 remarks on seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal underscore ground operation considerations to cripple exports and enforce ceasefires, amid first US casualties and Iran's rejection of a 15-point US peace proposal. On March 29, Iran's parliament speaker accused the US of plotting a ground assault despite Pakistan-hosted diplomatic talks this week, fueling 8% odds for entry by March 31 while highlighting escalation risks absent de-escalation breakthroughs.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Les forces américaines entrent en Iran par... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 décembre » à 78%, suivi de « 30 avril » à 69%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 78¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 78% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Les forces américaines entrent en Iran par... ? » a généré $52.3 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 11, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Les forces américaines entrent en Iran par... ? », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Les forces américaines entrent en Iran par... ? » est « 31 décembre » à 78%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 78% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 30 avril » à 69%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Les forces américaines entrent en Iran par... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.