Trader consensus favors Conservative Tatiana Auguste at 58.5% implied probability to win the Terrebonne federal by-election in Quebec, ahead of Bloc Québécois candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné at 40.5%, reflecting recent polling leads for the Conservatives in the riding amid a national surge under Pierre Poilievre. A Léger poll released last week showed Auguste ahead 45-35% in Terrebonne, boosted by voter concerns over affordability and criticism of the Liberal government's record, while the Bloc struggles with suburban turnout and leadership questions. Sinclair-Desgagné, a sitting Bloc MP switching ridings, benefits from sovereignist base loyalty but trails in battleground areas. The October 7 vote looms with low expected turnout potentially amplifying swings; minor candidates hold negligible shares.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourTerrebone By-Election Winner
Terrebone By-Election Winner
Tatiana Auguste 59%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 41%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
$30,507 Vol.
$30,507 Vol.

Tatiana Auguste
59%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
41%

Maxime Beaudoin
<1%

Maria Cantore
<1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%

Benjamin Rankin
<1%
Tatiana Auguste 59%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 41%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
$30,507 Vol.
$30,507 Vol.

Tatiana Auguste
59%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
41%

Maxime Beaudoin
<1%

Maria Cantore
<1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%

Benjamin Rankin
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Conservative Tatiana Auguste at 58.5% implied probability to win the Terrebonne federal by-election in Quebec, ahead of Bloc Québécois candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné at 40.5%, reflecting recent polling leads for the Conservatives in the riding amid a national surge under Pierre Poilievre. A Léger poll released last week showed Auguste ahead 45-35% in Terrebonne, boosted by voter concerns over affordability and criticism of the Liberal government's record, while the Bloc struggles with suburban turnout and leadership questions. Sinclair-Desgagné, a sitting Bloc MP switching ridings, benefits from sovereignist base loyalty but trails in battleground areas. The October 7 vote looms with low expected turnout potentially amplifying swings; minor candidates hold negligible shares.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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