Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Jordan Bardella at 26% implied probability to win France's 2027 presidential election, reflecting National Rally's strong showing in 2024 snap legislative elections despite the resulting hung parliament. Édouard Philippe trails closely at 18.5%, buoyed by centrist appeal and his prior role as prime minister under Macron. The race remains tight due to a fragmented field—no incumbent, multi-party divisions, and uncertainty over Marine Le Pen's eligibility amid her ongoing embezzlement appeal—keeping odds dispersed across 30+ candidates. Separation could arise from no-confidence votes on PM Michel Barnier, fresh polling shifts, key endorsements, or resolution of legal hurdles before nominations solidify in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourProchaine élection présidentielle française
Prochaine élection présidentielle française
Jordan Bardella 26%
Édouard Philippe 19%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$16,464,269 Vol.
$16,464,269 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
26%

Édouard Philippe
19%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Marine Le Pen
8%

Dominique de Villepin
7%

Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

Sarah Knafo
4%

Jean Castex
3%

François Hollande
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

David Lisnard
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

François Bayrou
1%

François Ruffin
1%

Marine Tondelier
1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Titre du groupe : Manuel Bompard
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Xavier Bertrand
<1%

Olivier Faure
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Titre d'élément du groupe: Carole Delga
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%
Jordan Bardella 26%
Édouard Philippe 19%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$16,464,269 Vol.
$16,464,269 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
26%

Édouard Philippe
19%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Marine Le Pen
8%

Dominique de Villepin
7%

Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

Sarah Knafo
4%

Jean Castex
3%

François Hollande
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

David Lisnard
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

François Bayrou
1%

François Ruffin
1%

Marine Tondelier
1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Titre du groupe : Manuel Bompard
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Xavier Bertrand
<1%

Olivier Faure
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Titre d'élément du groupe: Carole Delga
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Jordan Bardella at 26% implied probability to win France's 2027 presidential election, reflecting National Rally's strong showing in 2024 snap legislative elections despite the resulting hung parliament. Édouard Philippe trails closely at 18.5%, buoyed by centrist appeal and his prior role as prime minister under Macron. The race remains tight due to a fragmented field—no incumbent, multi-party divisions, and uncertainty over Marine Le Pen's eligibility amid her ongoing embezzlement appeal—keeping odds dispersed across 30+ candidates. Separation could arise from no-confidence votes on PM Michel Barnier, fresh polling shifts, key endorsements, or resolution of legal hurdles before nominations solidify in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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