US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile sites under Operation Epic Fury, with Israel targeting key nuclear assets on March 27 amid Iranian counterstrikes injuring US troops in Saudi Arabia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the campaign will conclude in weeks rather than months, while Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal without commitment, and President Trump extended the deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This persistent escalation and lack of de-escalation signals underpin trader consensus at 94.5% for action extending through March 31. Realistic shifts could arise from a breakthrough diplomatic agreement, Iranian concessions, or abrupt ceasefire announcement before month's end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAction militaire jusqu'au 31 mars 95%
31 mars 2.4%
30 mars <1%
29 mars <1%
$2,660,230 Vol.
$2,660,230 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29 mars
1%
30 mars
1%
31 mars
2%
Action militaire jusqu'au 31 mars
95%
Action militaire jusqu'au 31 mars 95%
31 mars 2.4%
30 mars <1%
29 mars <1%
$2,660,230 Vol.
$2,660,230 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29 mars
$285,459 Vol.
1%
30 mars
$282,262 Vol.
1%
31 mars
$371,078 Vol.
2%
Action militaire jusqu'au 31 mars
$573,545 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile sites under Operation Epic Fury, with Israel targeting key nuclear assets on March 27 amid Iranian counterstrikes injuring US troops in Saudi Arabia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the campaign will conclude in weeks rather than months, while Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal without commitment, and President Trump extended the deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This persistent escalation and lack of de-escalation signals underpin trader consensus at 94.5% for action extending through March 31. Realistic shifts could arise from a breakthrough diplomatic agreement, Iranian concessions, or abrupt ceasefire announcement before month's end.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$2,660,230Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile sites under Operation Epic Fury, with Israel targeting key nuclear assets on March 27 amid Iranian counterstrikes injuring US troops in Saudi Arabia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the campaign will conclude in weeks rather than months, while Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal without commitment, and President Trump extended the deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This persistent escalation and lack of de-escalation signals underpin trader consensus at 94.5% for action extending through March 31. Realistic shifts could arise from a breakthrough diplomatic agreement, Iranian concessions, or abrupt ceasefire announcement before month's end.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,660,230Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile sites under Operation Epic Fury, with Israel targeting key nuclear assets on March 27 amid Iranian counterstrikes injuring US troops in Saudi Arabia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the campaign will conclude in weeks rather than months, while Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal without commitment, and President Trump extended the deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This persistent escalation and lack of de-escalation signals underpin trader consensus at 94.5% for action extending through March 31. Realistic shifts could arise from a breakthrough diplomatic agreement, Iranian concessions, or abrupt ceasefire announcement before month's end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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