Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31, reflecting sustained U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial sites, missile facilities, and command centers as reported in the past week, including strikes near Mashhad on March 26 and ongoing operations amid new U.S. casualties announced March 28. Iran's rejection of a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25—coupled with its counterproposal demanding reparations—and Houthi missile attacks on Israel yesterday underscore escalation rather than de-escalation, with no verified halt in hostilities today. While a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral ceasefire could shift odds, current signals point to prolonged degradation of Iran's military capabilities under Operation Epic Fury.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAction militaire jusqu'au 31 mars 97.0%
31 mars 1.3%
30 mars 1.0%
29 mars <1%
$2,859,926 Vol.
$2,859,926 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29 mars
<1%
30 mars
1%
31 mars
1%
Action militaire jusqu'au 31 mars
97%
Action militaire jusqu'au 31 mars 97.0%
31 mars 1.3%
30 mars 1.0%
29 mars <1%
$2,859,926 Vol.
$2,859,926 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29 mars
$311,998 Vol.
<1%
30 mars
$289,872 Vol.
1%
31 mars
$418,901 Vol.
1%
Action militaire jusqu'au 31 mars
$693,932 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31, reflecting sustained U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial sites, missile facilities, and command centers as reported in the past week, including strikes near Mashhad on March 26 and ongoing operations amid new U.S. casualties announced March 28. Iran's rejection of a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25—coupled with its counterproposal demanding reparations—and Houthi missile attacks on Israel yesterday underscore escalation rather than de-escalation, with no verified halt in hostilities today. While a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral ceasefire could shift odds, current signals point to prolonged degradation of Iran's military capabilities under Operation Epic Fury.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$2,859,926Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31, reflecting sustained U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial sites, missile facilities, and command centers as reported in the past week, including strikes near Mashhad on March 26 and ongoing operations amid new U.S. casualties announced March 28. Iran's rejection of a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25—coupled with its counterproposal demanding reparations—and Houthi missile attacks on Israel yesterday underscore escalation rather than de-escalation, with no verified halt in hostilities today. While a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral ceasefire could shift odds, current signals point to prolonged degradation of Iran's military capabilities under Operation Epic Fury.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,859,926Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31, reflecting sustained U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial sites, missile facilities, and command centers as reported in the past week, including strikes near Mashhad on March 26 and ongoing operations amid new U.S. casualties announced March 28. Iran's rejection of a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25—coupled with its counterproposal demanding reparations—and Houthi missile attacks on Israel yesterday underscore escalation rather than de-escalation, with no verified halt in hostilities today. While a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral ceasefire could shift odds, current signals point to prolonged degradation of Iran's military capabilities under Operation Epic Fury.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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