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Climat Et Science·Science

Mars 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)

Market icon
Climat Et Science·Science

Mars 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)

avr. 10

avr. 10

1,25–1,29ºC 58.3%

>1,29ºC 23.5%

1,20–1,24ºC 17%

1,15–1,19ºC 1.8%

Polymarket

$231,379 Vol.

1,25–1,29ºC 58.3%

>1,29ºC 23.5%

1,20–1,24ºC 17%

1,15–1,19ºC 1.8%

Polymarket

$231,379 Vol.

<1,10ºC

$29,527 Vol.

1%

1,10–1,14ºC

$33,823 Vol.

1%

1,15–1,19ºC

$54,345 Vol.

2%

1,20–1,24ºC

$40,112 Vol.

17%

1,25–1,29ºC

$27,056 Vol.

58%

>1,29ºC

$46,516 Vol.

24%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary Copernicus ERA5 data released in late March shows the global surface air temperature anomaly for March 2026 at approximately 1.26–1.27°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus to 58.3% implied probability on the 1.25–1.29°C outcome and 24.2% on exceeding 1.29°C. A stronger-than-expected La Niña, with cold equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures confirmed by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, suppressed global averages despite intense regional heatwaves like the record Southwest U.S. event. This ranks March 2026 around the fifth- or sixth-warmest on record, cooler than recent peaks. Final bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA, due mid-April, could prompt minor revisions amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$231,379
Date de fin
10 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary Copernicus ERA5 data released in late March shows the global surface air temperature anomaly for March 2026 at approximately 1.26–1.27°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus to 58.3% implied probability on the 1.25–1.29°C outcome and 24.2% on exceeding 1.29°C. A stronger-than-expected La Niña, with cold equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures confirmed by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, suppressed global averages despite intense regional heatwaves like the record Southwest U.S. event. This ranks March 2026 around the fifth- or sixth-warmest on record, cooler than recent peaks. Final bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA, due mid-April, could prompt minor revisions amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$231,379
Date de fin
10 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

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Questions fréquentes

« Mars 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC) » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 6 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 1,25–1,29ºC » à 58%, suivi de « >1,29ºC » à 24%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 58¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 58% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Mars 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC) » a généré $231.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 28, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Mars 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC) », parcourez les 6 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Mars 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC) » est « 1,25–1,29ºC » à 58%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 58% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « >1,29ºC » à 24%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Mars 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC) » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.