Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds over 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making continental U.S. landfall through the end of 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and recent seasonal outcomes. Only four have occurred historically since 1851 (1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018), averaging less than once per decade despite rising ocean heat content aiding intensification. The hyperactive 2025 Atlantic season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) but none struck the U.S. mainland, with only a tropical storm landfall. Early NOAA-aligned forecasts for 2026 predict near- or below-average activity (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors) amid potential El Niño development suppressing formation, leaving limited time before resolution. New National Hurricane Center advisories expected in June could shift odds if rapid intensification risks emerge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourUn ouragan de catégorie 5 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Un ouragan de catégorie 5 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Oui
$107,255 Vol.
$107,255 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$107,255 Vol.
$107,255 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds over 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making continental U.S. landfall through the end of 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and recent seasonal outcomes. Only four have occurred historically since 1851 (1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018), averaging less than once per decade despite rising ocean heat content aiding intensification. The hyperactive 2025 Atlantic season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) but none struck the U.S. mainland, with only a tropical storm landfall. Early NOAA-aligned forecasts for 2026 predict near- or below-average activity (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors) amid potential El Niño development suppressing formation, leaving limited time before resolution. New National Hurricane Center advisories expected in June could shift odds if rapid intensification risks emerge.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$107,255Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds over 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making continental U.S. landfall through the end of 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and recent seasonal outcomes. Only four have occurred historically since 1851 (1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018), averaging less than once per decade despite rising ocean heat content aiding intensification. The hyperactive 2025 Atlantic season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) but none struck the U.S. mainland, with only a tropical storm landfall. Early NOAA-aligned forecasts for 2026 predict near- or below-average activity (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors) amid potential El Niño development suppressing formation, leaving limited time before resolution. New National Hurricane Center advisories expected in June could shift odds if rapid intensification risks emerge.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$107,255Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds over 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making continental U.S. landfall through the end of 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and recent seasonal outcomes. Only four have occurred historically since 1851 (1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018), averaging less than once per decade despite rising ocean heat content aiding intensification. The hyperactive 2025 Atlantic season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) but none struck the U.S. mainland, with only a tropical storm landfall. Early NOAA-aligned forecasts for 2026 predict near- or below-average activity (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors) amid potential El Niño development suppressing formation, leaving limited time before resolution. New National Hurricane Center advisories expected in June could shift odds if rapid intensification risks emerge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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