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Géopolitique·Moyen-Orient

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Moyen-Orient

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

34% chance
Polymarket
NEW
34% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's position appears stable amid escalating Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs, which he has condemned as preludes to ground invasion while urging U.S. intervention and direct negotiations with Israel. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a March 19 ceasefire proposal, UN Secretary-General meeting on March 13, and affirmations of state monopoly on arms against Hezbollah, underscore his active leadership without signs of domestic challenges like no-confidence votes or parliamentary upheaval. Traders' 78% consensus on "No" reflects this continuity, bolstered by his signing of the 2026 zero-deficit budget in February and calls for parliamentary elections in due time, with his six-year term elected in 2025 facing no immediate threats before year-end.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's position appears stable amid escalating Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs, which he has condemned as preludes to ground invasion while urging U.S. intervention and direct negotiations with Israel. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a March 19 ceasefire proposal, UN Secretary-General meeting on March 13, and affirmations of state monopoly on arms against Hezbollah, underscore his active leadership without signs of domestic challenges like no-confidence votes or parliamentary upheaval. Traders' 78% consensus on "No" reflects this continuity, bolstered by his signing of the 2026 zero-deficit budget in February and calls for parliamentary elections in due time, with his six-year term elected in 2025 facing no immediate threats before year-end.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's position appears stable amid escalating Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs, which he has condemned as preludes to ground invasion while urging U.S. intervention and direct negotiations with Israel. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a March 19 ceasefire proposal, UN Secretary-General meeting on March 13, and affirmations of state monopoly on arms against Hezbollah, underscore his active leadership without signs of domestic challenges like no-confidence votes or parliamentary upheaval. Traders' 78% consensus on "No" reflects this continuity, bolstered by his signing of the 2026 zero-deficit budget in February and calls for parliamentary elections in due time, with his six-year term elected in 2025 facing no immediate threats before year-end.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's position appears stable amid escalating Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs, which he has condemned as preludes to ground invasion while urging U.S. intervention and direct negotiations with Israel. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a March 19 ceasefire proposal, UN Secretary-General meeting on March 13, and affirmations of state monopoly on arms against Hezbollah, underscore his active leadership without signs of domestic challenges like no-confidence votes or parliamentary upheaval. Traders' 78% consensus on "No" reflects this continuity, bolstered by his signing of the 2026 zero-deficit budget in February and calls for parliamentary elections in due time, with his six-year term elected in 2025 facing no immediate threats before year-end.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 23% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 23¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 23% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Mar 19, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? » est de 23% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 23% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.