Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70% implied probability that Jerome Powell exits the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by December 31, 2026, amid President Trump's stalled nomination of Kevin Warsh as chair and a DOJ probe into $1 billion cost overruns on Fed headquarters renovations. Powell's term as chair expires May 15—with 39% odds of Board departure by May 30—yet he affirmed on March 18 he will remain until Warsh's Senate confirmation, despite a judge quashing subpoenas for lack of criminal evidence. Recent dismissal of AG Pam Bondi, who oversaw the probe, adds uncertainty to its trajectory. Key catalysts include Warsh's confirmation vote and FOMC meetings through mid-year, testing Fed independence versus political pressure on monetary policy.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$117,910 Vol.
30 mai
39%
31 décembre
70%
$117,910 Vol.
30 mai
39%
31 décembre
70%
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Marché ouvert : Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70% implied probability that Jerome Powell exits the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by December 31, 2026, amid President Trump's stalled nomination of Kevin Warsh as chair and a DOJ probe into $1 billion cost overruns on Fed headquarters renovations. Powell's term as chair expires May 15—with 39% odds of Board departure by May 30—yet he affirmed on March 18 he will remain until Warsh's Senate confirmation, despite a judge quashing subpoenas for lack of criminal evidence. Recent dismissal of AG Pam Bondi, who oversaw the probe, adds uncertainty to its trajectory. Key catalysts include Warsh's confirmation vote and FOMC meetings through mid-year, testing Fed independence versus political pressure on monetary policy.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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