Ongoing military exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah persist into late March 2026, with no ceasefire in effect after the November 2024 truce collapsed early this month amid mutual accusations of violations. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected truce negotiations on March 26, deeming them "surrender" under fire, as the group launched rockets killing an Israeli civilian near Nahariya, prompting intensified Israeli airstrikes on over 200 infrastructure sites and plans for a southern Lebanon buffer zone beyond the Litani River. U.S.-led diplomatic efforts, including potential talks involving Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer in Washington, face hurdles amid domestic Israeli opposition to prolonged fighting and Hezbollah's refusal to disarm. Traders watch for escalation signals or breakthroughs before key deadlines, with Gaza's shaky truce diverting fewer resources northward.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIsraël x Hezbollah cessez-le-feu d'ici... ?
Israël x Hezbollah cessez-le-feu d'ici... ?
$375,622 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
31 mars
2%
30 juin
40%
30 avril
11%
$375,622 Vol.
31 mars
$335,715 Vol.
2%
30 juin
$38,470 Vol.
40%
30 avril
$1,437 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Ongoing military exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah persist into late March 2026, with no ceasefire in effect after the November 2024 truce collapsed early this month amid mutual accusations of violations. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected truce negotiations on March 26, deeming them "surrender" under fire, as the group launched rockets killing an Israeli civilian near Nahariya, prompting intensified Israeli airstrikes on over 200 infrastructure sites and plans for a southern Lebanon buffer zone beyond the Litani River. U.S.-led diplomatic efforts, including potential talks involving Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer in Washington, face hurdles amid domestic Israeli opposition to prolonged fighting and Hezbollah's refusal to disarm. Traders watch for escalation signals or breakthroughs before key deadlines, with Gaza's shaky truce diverting fewer resources northward.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$375,622Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Ongoing military exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah persist into late March 2026, with no ceasefire in effect after the November 2024 truce collapsed early this month amid mutual accusations of violations. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected truce negotiations on March 26, deeming them "surrender" under fire, as the group launched rockets killing an Israeli civilian near Nahariya, prompting intensified Israeli airstrikes on over 200 infrastructure sites and plans for a southern Lebanon buffer zone beyond the Litani River. U.S.-led diplomatic efforts, including potential talks involving Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer in Washington, face hurdles amid domestic Israeli opposition to prolonged fighting and Hezbollah's refusal to disarm. Traders watch for escalation signals or breakthroughs before key deadlines, with Gaza's shaky truce diverting fewer resources northward.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$375,622Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah persist into late March 2026, with no ceasefire in effect after the November 2024 truce collapsed early this month amid mutual accusations of violations. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected truce negotiations on March 26, deeming them "surrender" under fire, as the group launched rockets killing an Israeli civilian near Nahariya, prompting intensified Israeli airstrikes on over 200 infrastructure sites and plans for a southern Lebanon buffer zone beyond the Litani River. U.S.-led diplomatic efforts, including potential talks involving Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer in Washington, face hurdles amid domestic Israeli opposition to prolonged fighting and Hezbollah's refusal to disarm. Traders watch for escalation signals or breakthroughs before key deadlines, with Gaza's shaky truce diverting fewer resources northward.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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