Iran's rejection of a U.S. 15-point proposal delivered March 24 via Pakistan has solidified trader skepticism on any near-term agreement to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, as Tehran deemed demands for program dismantlement, zero enrichment, IAEA handover of the roughly 6,200 kg stockpile, missile curbs, proxy cutoffs, and Strait of Hormuz guarantees as "excessive surrender." IAEA reports confirm the stockpile—much stored at Isfahan—remains largely intact despite U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February, with monitoring disrupted. Iran countered with its own terms, as Pakistan prepares to host indirect talks amid U.S. Marine deployments and Iranian threats of escalation, leaving diplomacy precarious before potential March 31 deadlines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$40,633 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
12%
June 30
26%
December 31
33%
$40,633 Vol.
April 30
$8,295 Vol.
12%
June 30
$8,377 Vol.
26%
December 31
$23,962 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's rejection of a U.S. 15-point proposal delivered March 24 via Pakistan has solidified trader skepticism on any near-term agreement to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, as Tehran deemed demands for program dismantlement, zero enrichment, IAEA handover of the roughly 6,200 kg stockpile, missile curbs, proxy cutoffs, and Strait of Hormuz guarantees as "excessive surrender." IAEA reports confirm the stockpile—much stored at Isfahan—remains largely intact despite U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February, with monitoring disrupted. Iran countered with its own terms, as Pakistan prepares to host indirect talks amid U.S. Marine deployments and Iranian threats of escalation, leaving diplomacy precarious before potential March 31 deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$40,633Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's rejection of a U.S. 15-point proposal delivered March 24 via Pakistan has solidified trader skepticism on any near-term agreement to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, as Tehran deemed demands for program dismantlement, zero enrichment, IAEA handover of the roughly 6,200 kg stockpile, missile curbs, proxy cutoffs, and Strait of Hormuz guarantees as "excessive surrender." IAEA reports confirm the stockpile—much stored at Isfahan—remains largely intact despite U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February, with monitoring disrupted. Iran countered with its own terms, as Pakistan prepares to host indirect talks amid U.S. Marine deployments and Iranian threats of escalation, leaving diplomacy precarious before potential March 31 deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$40,633Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's rejection of a U.S. 15-point proposal delivered March 24 via Pakistan has solidified trader skepticism on any near-term agreement to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, as Tehran deemed demands for program dismantlement, zero enrichment, IAEA handover of the roughly 6,200 kg stockpile, missile curbs, proxy cutoffs, and Strait of Hormuz guarantees as "excessive surrender." IAEA reports confirm the stockpile—much stored at Isfahan—remains largely intact despite U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February, with monitoring disrupted. Iran countered with its own terms, as Pakistan prepares to host indirect talks amid U.S. Marine deployments and Iranian threats of escalation, leaving diplomacy precarious before potential March 31 deadlines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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