How many states will 538 call correctly?
46 78%
48 91%
47 48%
43 9.0%
$10,713 Vol.
$10,713 Vol.
Nov 5, 2024
50
$5,112 Vol.
No
50
$5,112 Vol.
No
49
$1,846 Vol.
No
49
$1,846 Vol.
No
48
$975 Vol.
No
48
$975 Vol.
No
47
$409 Vol.
No
47
$409 Vol.
No
46
$1,313 Vol.
Yes
46
$1,313 Vol.
Yes
45
$121 Vol.
No
45
$121 Vol.
No
44
$123 Vol.
No
44
$123 Vol.
No
43
$241 Vol.
No
43
$241 Vol.
No
<43
$572 Vol.
No
<43
$572 Vol.
No
Règles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in all 50 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.
Créé le : Oct 28, 2024, 12:13 PM ET
Volume
$10,713Date de fin
Nov 5, 2024Créé le
Oct 28, 2024, 12:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
How many states will 538 call correctly?
46 78%
48 91%
47 48%
43 9.0%
$10,713 Vol.
$10,713 Vol.
Nov 5, 2024
50
$5,112 Vol.
No
49
$1,846 Vol.
No
48
$975 Vol.
No
47
$409 Vol.
No
46
$1,313 Vol.
Yes
45
$121 Vol.
No
44
$123 Vol.
No
43
$241 Vol.
No
<43
$572 Vol.
No
À propos
Volume
$10,713Date de fin
Nov 5, 2024Créé le
Oct 28, 2024, 12:13 PM ETResolver
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