Polymarket traders assign a 38.2% implied probability to zero Fed rate cuts (0 bps) in 2026, closely followed by 24.5% for one 25 bps cut, reflecting the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures. The updated Summary of Economic Projections revealed a median participant forecast for just one cut, with core PCE inflation revised upward to 2.7% for 2026 from 2.5%, driven by recent January CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and geopolitical oil spikes above $100 per barrel. Softening labor market signals, including weaker job growth, offer counterbalance but insufficient to prompt near-term easing, per CME FedWatch's 95% hold odds for April. Upcoming April payrolls, CPI, and FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCombien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?
Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?
0 (0 bps) 38.2%
1 (25 bps) 25%
2 (50 pb) 18%
3 (75 points de base) 10%
$14,496,286 Vol.
$14,496,286 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
38%
1 (25 bps)
25%
2 (50 pb)
18%
3 (75 points de base)
10%
4 (100 pb)
6%
5 (125 pb)
2%
6 (150 points de base)
1%
7 (175 points de base)
1%
8 (200 points de base)
1%
9 (225 points de base)
<1%
10 (250 pb)
<1%
11 (275 points de base)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 38.2%
1 (25 bps) 25%
2 (50 pb) 18%
3 (75 points de base) 10%
$14,496,286 Vol.
$14,496,286 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$2,593,488 Vol.
38%
1 (25 bps)
$868,422 Vol.
25%
2 (50 pb)
$810,559 Vol.
18%
3 (75 points de base)
$784,593 Vol.
10%
4 (100 pb)
$789,077 Vol.
6%
5 (125 pb)
$819,240 Vol.
2%
6 (150 points de base)
$1,823,433 Vol.
1%
7 (175 points de base)
$770,214 Vol.
1%
8 (200 points de base)
$970,262 Vol.
1%
9 (225 points de base)
$703,976 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 pb)
$969,194 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 points de base)
$1,029,794 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$1,564,118 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders assign a 38.2% implied probability to zero Fed rate cuts (0 bps) in 2026, closely followed by 24.5% for one 25 bps cut, reflecting the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures. The updated Summary of Economic Projections revealed a median participant forecast for just one cut, with core PCE inflation revised upward to 2.7% for 2026 from 2.5%, driven by recent January CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and geopolitical oil spikes above $100 per barrel. Softening labor market signals, including weaker job growth, offer counterbalance but insufficient to prompt near-term easing, per CME FedWatch's 95% hold odds for April. Upcoming April payrolls, CPI, and FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Marché ouvert : Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$14,496,286Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders assign a 38.2% implied probability to zero Fed rate cuts (0 bps) in 2026, closely followed by 24.5% for one 25 bps cut, reflecting the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures. The updated Summary of Economic Projections revealed a median participant forecast for just one cut, with core PCE inflation revised upward to 2.7% for 2026 from 2.5%, driven by recent January CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and geopolitical oil spikes above $100 per barrel. Softening labor market signals, including weaker job growth, offer counterbalance but insufficient to prompt near-term easing, per CME FedWatch's 95% hold odds for April. Upcoming April payrolls, CPI, and FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$14,496,286Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 38.2% implied probability to zero Fed rate cuts (0 bps) in 2026, closely followed by 24.5% for one 25 bps cut, reflecting the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures. The updated Summary of Economic Projections revealed a median participant forecast for just one cut, with core PCE inflation revised upward to 2.7% for 2026 from 2.5%, driven by recent January CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and geopolitical oil spikes above $100 per barrel. Softening labor market signals, including weaker job growth, offer counterbalance but insufficient to prompt near-term easing, per CME FedWatch's 95% hold odds for April. Upcoming April payrolls, CPI, and FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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