Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on April 5 (98.5% implied probability), driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, alongside China Meteorological Administration guidance, projecting a daytime peak around 22–24°C under overcast to partly cloudy conditions with light southerly winds. Morning observations at Shanghai's official stations started cool near 15°C (59°F), aligning with expected moderate heating absent strong insolation barriers, consistent with early April climatology where averages hover near 18°C but synoptic patterns allow mild outliers. This model convergence over the past 24 hours solidified positioning, as prior runs showed slight spread. Realistic challenges include thickening clouds capping peaks below 24°C or unexpected clearing pushing toward 25°C; hourly updates from local observatories through afternoon will be pivotal ahead of market resolution.