Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97% implied probability to a 24°C high temperature in Shanghai on April 5, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project a peak of exactly 24°C under persistent overcast skies and light southerly winds following a cool frontal passage on April 3 that suppressed prior highs to 16-17°C. Morning observations at Xujiahui station show temperatures rising from 13-15°C amid hazy conditions, aligning with limited solar insolation and mild recovery from seasonal norms around 19°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud breaks boosting shortwave radiation to nudge toward 25°C or stronger onshore flow cooling the boundary layer below 24°C; hourly updates from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory through afternoon peak hours (2-4 p.m. local) will refine this outlook.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 5?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 5?
24°C 98.6%
25°C 1.0%
26°C <1%
28°C or higher <1%
$418,182 Vol.
$418,182 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
99%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 98.6%
25°C 1.0%
26°C <1%
28°C or higher <1%
$418,182 Vol.
$418,182 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
99%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97% implied probability to a 24°C high temperature in Shanghai on April 5, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project a peak of exactly 24°C under persistent overcast skies and light southerly winds following a cool frontal passage on April 3 that suppressed prior highs to 16-17°C. Morning observations at Xujiahui station show temperatures rising from 13-15°C amid hazy conditions, aligning with limited solar insolation and mild recovery from seasonal norms around 19°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud breaks boosting shortwave radiation to nudge toward 25°C or stronger onshore flow cooling the boundary layer below 24°C; hourly updates from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory through afternoon peak hours (2-4 p.m. local) will refine this outlook.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes