Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Meteo-France drive trader consensus toward mild highs of 16-18°C in Paris on March 19, with 17°C leading at 37% implied probability amid a tight race. A persistent high-pressure ridge over Western Europe is funneling southerly winds and above-average temperatures, building on recent days' anomalies exceeding seasonal norms of 11-13°C. Differentiating factors include afternoon solar heating potential under partly cloudy skies—favoring 17-18°C if insolation peaks—versus marine layer persistence capping at 16°C, as shown in model spreads (ECMWF mean ~16.5°C, sigma 1.2°C). Uncertainty lingers from divergent GFS runs, with key updates expected 48 hours out.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Paris on March 19?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 19?
17°C 38%
16°C 31%
18°C 22%
15°C 8%
$34,514 Vol.
$34,514 Vol.
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
8%
16°C
31%
17°C
38%
18°C
22%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
17°C 38%
16°C 31%
18°C 22%
15°C 8%
$34,514 Vol.
$34,514 Vol.
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
8%
16°C
31%
17°C
38%
18°C
22%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 15, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Meteo-France drive trader consensus toward mild highs of 16-18°C in Paris on March 19, with 17°C leading at 37% implied probability amid a tight race. A persistent high-pressure ridge over Western Europe is funneling southerly winds and above-average temperatures, building on recent days' anomalies exceeding seasonal norms of 11-13°C. Differentiating factors include afternoon solar heating potential under partly cloudy skies—favoring 17-18°C if insolation peaks—versus marine layer persistence capping at 16°C, as shown in model spreads (ECMWF mean ~16.5°C, sigma 1.2°C). Uncertainty lingers from divergent GFS runs, with key updates expected 48 hours out.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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