Trader consensus heavily favors 17°C (63.5% implied probability) and 18°C (31.5%) as Milan's highest temperature on March 25, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mild highs in the mid-to-upper teens Celsius amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Europe. Recent model runs from March 23-24 show minimal spread, with deterministic outputs at 16-18°C, reflecting stable southerly flow and above-average spring warmth—March historical averages hover around 14°C but this year's anthropogenic warming trend boosts baselines. Low odds for extremes stem from absent signals for heatwaves or cold snaps in official ARPA Lombardia outlooks, though cloud cover or afternoon showers could shave 1-2°C off peaks. Key watch: 00Z model refresh for final tweaks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Milan le 25 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Milan le 25 mars ?
17°C 67%
18°C 31%
19°C 1.8%
20°C <1%
$41,256 Vol.
$41,256 Vol.
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
67%
18°C
31%
19°C
2%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C ou plus
<1%
17°C 67%
18°C 31%
19°C 1.8%
20°C <1%
$41,256 Vol.
$41,256 Vol.
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
67%
18°C
31%
19°C
2%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C ou plus
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 17°C (63.5% implied probability) and 18°C (31.5%) as Milan's highest temperature on March 25, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mild highs in the mid-to-upper teens Celsius amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Europe. Recent model runs from March 23-24 show minimal spread, with deterministic outputs at 16-18°C, reflecting stable southerly flow and above-average spring warmth—March historical averages hover around 14°C but this year's anthropogenic warming trend boosts baselines. Low odds for extremes stem from absent signals for heatwaves or cold snaps in official ARPA Lombardia outlooks, though cloud cover or afternoon showers could shave 1-2°C off peaks. Key watch: 00Z model refresh for final tweaks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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