National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF indicate Chicago's high temperature on April 8 will reach the mid-50s to low 60s°F at O'Hare International Airport, the market's resolution station, supporting the 96.8% implied probability for 50°F or higher. This consensus stems from a building upper-level ridge ushering mild southerly flow after recent showers and cooler conditions earlier this week, with seasonal normals around 56°F providing climatological backing. Over the past 48 hours, updated model runs have tightened agreement on above-normal warmth, reflecting trader sentiment backed by real capital. Realistic challenges include an unexpected cold front or persistent low clouds delaying diurnal heating, though current guidance shows low risk; monitor daily NWS updates and 12z model refreshes for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chicago on April 8?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 8?
50°F or higher 96.7%
48-49°F 2.9%
36-37°F <1%
38-39°F <1%
NOUVEAU
$26,552 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$26,552 Vol.
8 avr. 2026
31°F or below
<1%
32-33°F
<1%
34-35°F
<1%
36-37°F
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
3%
50°F or higher
97%
50°F or higher 96.7%
48-49°F 2.9%
36-37°F <1%
38-39°F <1%
NOUVEAU
$26,552 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$26,552 Vol.
8 avr. 2026
31°F or below
$1,258 Vol.
<1%
32-33°F
$2,764 Vol.
<1%
34-35°F
$2,396 Vol.
<1%
36-37°F
$1,876 Vol.
<1%
38-39°F
$2,553 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$2,009 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$2,562 Vol.
<1%
44-45°F
$2,087 Vol.
<1%
46-47°F
$2,420 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$2,675 Vol.
3%
50°F or higher
$3,952 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF indicate Chicago's high temperature on April 8 will reach the mid-50s to low 60s°F at O'Hare International Airport, the market's resolution station, supporting the 96.8% implied probability for 50°F or higher. This consensus stems from a building upper-level ridge ushering mild southerly flow after recent showers and cooler conditions earlier this week, with seasonal normals around 56°F providing climatological backing. Over the past 48 hours, updated model runs have tightened agreement on above-normal warmth, reflecting trader sentiment backed by real capital. Realistic challenges include an unexpected cold front or persistent low clouds delaying diurnal heating, though current guidance shows low risk; monitor daily NWS updates and 12z model refreshes for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volume
$26,552Date de fin
8 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF indicate Chicago's high temperature on April 8 will reach the mid-50s to low 60s°F at O'Hare International Airport, the market's resolution station, supporting the 96.8% implied probability for 50°F or higher. This consensus stems from a building upper-level ridge ushering mild southerly flow after recent showers and cooler conditions earlier this week, with seasonal normals around 56°F providing climatological backing. Over the past 48 hours, updated model runs have tightened agreement on above-normal warmth, reflecting trader sentiment backed by real capital. Realistic challenges include an unexpected cold front or persistent low clouds delaying diurnal heating, though current guidance shows low risk; monitor daily NWS updates and 12z model refreshes for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$26,552Date de fin
8 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF indicate Chicago's high temperature on April 8 will reach the mid-50s to low 60s°F at O'Hare International Airport, the market's resolution station, supporting the 96.8% implied probability for 50°F or higher. This consensus stems from a building upper-level ridge ushering mild southerly flow after recent showers and cooler conditions earlier this week, with seasonal normals around 56°F providing climatological backing. Over the past 48 hours, updated model runs have tightened agreement on above-normal warmth, reflecting trader sentiment backed by real capital. Realistic challenges include an unexpected cold front or persistent low clouds delaying diurnal heating, though current guidance shows low risk; monitor daily NWS updates and 12z model refreshes for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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