Hezbollah has conducted frequent rocket and missile barrages against northern Israel throughout March 2026, including major salvos on March 22 killing one civilian and March 27 targeting military sites, amid retaliation for Israeli strikes linked to the broader US-Iran conflict that shattered the November 2024 ceasefire. Israel intensified airstrikes on Lebanon, eliminating Hezbollah's Southern Front commander Hajj Yusuf Hashem in Beirut overnight on April 1, while four IDF soldiers died in recent Lebanon clashes. Houthis claimed a joint ballistic missile attack on southern Israel with Hezbollah and Iran today, heightening escalation risks. Traders assess daily action probabilities based on this tit-for-tat pattern, leadership decapitations weakening Hezbollah's command, and potential diplomatic off-ramps amid regional war fatigue.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHezbollah military action against Israel on...?
Hezbollah military action against Israel on...?
$30,236 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
April 1
97%
April 2
92%
April 3
90%
April 4
89%
April 5
89%
April 6
83%
April 7
88%
April 8
88%
April 9
87%
April 10
89%
$30,236 Vol.
April 1
$2,975 Vol.
97%
April 2
$1,762 Vol.
92%
April 3
$890 Vol.
90%
April 4
$279 Vol.
89%
April 5
$303 Vol.
89%
April 6
$790 Vol.
83%
April 7
$20,733 Vol.
88%
April 8
$865 Vol.
88%
April 9
$695 Vol.
87%
April 10
$970 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has conducted frequent rocket and missile barrages against northern Israel throughout March 2026, including major salvos on March 22 killing one civilian and March 27 targeting military sites, amid retaliation for Israeli strikes linked to the broader US-Iran conflict that shattered the November 2024 ceasefire. Israel intensified airstrikes on Lebanon, eliminating Hezbollah's Southern Front commander Hajj Yusuf Hashem in Beirut overnight on April 1, while four IDF soldiers died in recent Lebanon clashes. Houthis claimed a joint ballistic missile attack on southern Israel with Hezbollah and Iran today, heightening escalation risks. Traders assess daily action probabilities based on this tit-for-tat pattern, leadership decapitations weakening Hezbollah's command, and potential diplomatic off-ramps amid regional war fatigue.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ET
Volume
$30,236Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has conducted frequent rocket and missile barrages against northern Israel throughout March 2026, including major salvos on March 22 killing one civilian and March 27 targeting military sites, amid retaliation for Israeli strikes linked to the broader US-Iran conflict that shattered the November 2024 ceasefire. Israel intensified airstrikes on Lebanon, eliminating Hezbollah's Southern Front commander Hajj Yusuf Hashem in Beirut overnight on April 1, while four IDF soldiers died in recent Lebanon clashes. Houthis claimed a joint ballistic missile attack on southern Israel with Hezbollah and Iran today, heightening escalation risks. Traders assess daily action probabilities based on this tit-for-tat pattern, leadership decapitations weakening Hezbollah's command, and potential diplomatic off-ramps amid regional war fatigue.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$30,236Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hezbollah has conducted frequent rocket and missile barrages against northern Israel throughout March 2026, including major salvos on March 22 killing one civilian and March 27 targeting military sites, amid retaliation for Israeli strikes linked to the broader US-Iran conflict that shattered the November 2024 ceasefire. Israel intensified airstrikes on Lebanon, eliminating Hezbollah's Southern Front commander Hajj Yusuf Hashem in Beirut overnight on April 1, while four IDF soldiers died in recent Lebanon clashes. Houthis claimed a joint ballistic missile attack on southern Israel with Hezbollah and Iran today, heightening escalation risks. Traders assess daily action probabilities based on this tit-for-tat pattern, leadership decapitations weakening Hezbollah's command, and potential diplomatic off-ramps amid regional war fatigue.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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