The Iranian regime maintained institutional continuity after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, enabling a constitutional succession process that installed Mojtaba Khamenei without major elite defections or widespread collapse. Reza Pahlavi remains based in exile with limited verifiable domestic mobilization capacity, while U.S. officials including President Trump have publicly favored candidates with internal support over diaspora figures. Pahlavi has focused advocacy on a referendum for a new constitution and elections rather than personal assumption of power. These structural and political barriers sustain the market's strong consensus against his leadership role materializing in 2026, though a rapid internal fracture or shift in external backing could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourReza Pahlavi dirigera-t-il l'Iran en 2026 ?
Reza Pahlavi dirigera-t-il l'Iran en 2026 ?
Oui
$11,405,642 Vol.
$11,405,642 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$11,405,642 Vol.
$11,405,642 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Iranian regime maintained institutional continuity after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, enabling a constitutional succession process that installed Mojtaba Khamenei without major elite defections or widespread collapse. Reza Pahlavi remains based in exile with limited verifiable domestic mobilization capacity, while U.S. officials including President Trump have publicly favored candidates with internal support over diaspora figures. Pahlavi has focused advocacy on a referendum for a new constitution and elections rather than personal assumption of power. These structural and political barriers sustain the market's strong consensus against his leadership role materializing in 2026, though a rapid internal fracture or shift in external backing could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Volume
$11,405,642Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Iranian regime maintained institutional continuity after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, enabling a constitutional succession process that installed Mojtaba Khamenei without major elite defections or widespread collapse. Reza Pahlavi remains based in exile with limited verifiable domestic mobilization capacity, while U.S. officials including President Trump have publicly favored candidates with internal support over diaspora figures. Pahlavi has focused advocacy on a referendum for a new constitution and elections rather than personal assumption of power. These structural and political barriers sustain the market's strong consensus against his leadership role materializing in 2026, though a rapid internal fracture or shift in external backing could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,405,671Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime maintained institutional continuity after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, enabling a constitutional succession process that installed Mojtaba Khamenei without major elite defections or widespread collapse. Reza Pahlavi remains based in exile with limited verifiable domestic mobilization capacity, while U.S. officials including President Trump have publicly favored candidates with internal support over diaspora figures. Pahlavi has focused advocacy on a referendum for a new constitution and elections rather than personal assumption of power. These structural and political barriers sustain the market's strong consensus against his leadership role materializing in 2026, though a rapid internal fracture or shift in external backing could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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