Trader consensus prices a low likelihood of Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026 at 85.3% "No," reflecting the Islamic Republic's entrenched control under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites in late October 2024, following Tehran's missile barrage, elicited regime vows of retaliation but no internal upheaval or power vacuum favoring the exiled son of the last Shah. Fragmented opposition lacks military support or institutional pathways for Pahlavi, whose calls for a democratic transition council have gained little traction amid suppressed protests. Khamenei's enduring authority and likely hardliner succession—potentially his son Mojtaba—underscore structural barriers to any leadership shift by 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourReza Pahlavi dirigera-t-il l'Iran en 2026 ?
Reza Pahlavi dirigera-t-il l'Iran en 2026 ?
Oui
$826,755 Vol.
$826,755 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$826,755 Vol.
$826,755 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a low likelihood of Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026 at 85.3% "No," reflecting the Islamic Republic's entrenched control under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites in late October 2024, following Tehran's missile barrage, elicited regime vows of retaliation but no internal upheaval or power vacuum favoring the exiled son of the last Shah. Fragmented opposition lacks military support or institutional pathways for Pahlavi, whose calls for a democratic transition council have gained little traction amid suppressed protests. Khamenei's enduring authority and likely hardliner succession—potentially his son Mojtaba—underscore structural barriers to any leadership shift by 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Volume
$826,755Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a low likelihood of Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026 at 85.3% "No," reflecting the Islamic Republic's entrenched control under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites in late October 2024, following Tehran's missile barrage, elicited regime vows of retaliation but no internal upheaval or power vacuum favoring the exiled son of the last Shah. Fragmented opposition lacks military support or institutional pathways for Pahlavi, whose calls for a democratic transition council have gained little traction amid suppressed protests. Khamenei's enduring authority and likely hardliner succession—potentially his son Mojtaba—underscore structural barriers to any leadership shift by 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$826,755Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a low likelihood of Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026 at 85.3% "No," reflecting the Islamic Republic's entrenched control under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites in late October 2024, following Tehran's missile barrage, elicited regime vows of retaliation but no internal upheaval or power vacuum favoring the exiled son of the last Shah. Fragmented opposition lacks military support or institutional pathways for Pahlavi, whose calls for a democratic transition council have gained little traction amid suppressed protests. Khamenei's enduring authority and likely hardliner succession—potentially his son Mojtaba—underscore structural barriers to any leadership shift by 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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