Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.6% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting skepticism over regime change despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March US-Israeli airstrikes that sparked protests and a high-stakes succession race. Exiled Crown Prince Pahlavi has intensified calls for transition, announcing on March 15 his readiness to head an interim democratic government, publishing Washington Post op-eds, and addressing CPAC this week, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains control, with son Mojtaba Khamenei emerging as untested new supreme leader amid opacity in clerical selection. Absent military defections or mass uprisings, structural barriers and institutional resilience favor continuity over Pahlavi's return.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourReza Pahlavi dirigera-t-il l'Iran en 2026 ?
Reza Pahlavi dirigera-t-il l'Iran en 2026 ?
Oui
$831,040 Vol.
$831,040 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$831,040 Vol.
$831,040 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.6% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting skepticism over regime change despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March US-Israeli airstrikes that sparked protests and a high-stakes succession race. Exiled Crown Prince Pahlavi has intensified calls for transition, announcing on March 15 his readiness to head an interim democratic government, publishing Washington Post op-eds, and addressing CPAC this week, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains control, with son Mojtaba Khamenei emerging as untested new supreme leader amid opacity in clerical selection. Absent military defections or mass uprisings, structural barriers and institutional resilience favor continuity over Pahlavi's return.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Volume
$831,040Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.6% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting skepticism over regime change despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March US-Israeli airstrikes that sparked protests and a high-stakes succession race. Exiled Crown Prince Pahlavi has intensified calls for transition, announcing on March 15 his readiness to head an interim democratic government, publishing Washington Post op-eds, and addressing CPAC this week, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains control, with son Mojtaba Khamenei emerging as untested new supreme leader amid opacity in clerical selection. Absent military defections or mass uprisings, structural barriers and institutional resilience favor continuity over Pahlavi's return.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$831,040Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.6% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting skepticism over regime change despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March US-Israeli airstrikes that sparked protests and a high-stakes succession race. Exiled Crown Prince Pahlavi has intensified calls for transition, announcing on March 15 his readiness to head an interim democratic government, publishing Washington Post op-eds, and addressing CPAC this week, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains control, with son Mojtaba Khamenei emerging as untested new supreme leader amid opacity in clerical selection. Absent military defections or mass uprisings, structural barriers and institutional resilience favor continuity over Pahlavi's return.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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