Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% target range amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal and stable unemployment at 4.4%. Policymakers' dot plot signals just one cut in 2026 overall, with Vice Chair Barr's March 26 remarks emphasizing a hold-steady posture to evaluate evolving data like April CPI on the 10th. Modest odds for a 25 basis point decrease (6.5%) or increase (5.1%) capture tail risks from labor softening or geopolitical inflation pressures, but absent major shocks, markets anticipate policy continuity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Fed en juin ?
Décision de la Fed en juin ?
Aucun changement 88%
Baisse de 25 points de base 7%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 5.2%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$4,632,803 Vol.
$4,632,803 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
7%
Aucun changement
88%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
5%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Aucun changement 88%
Baisse de 25 points de base 7%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 5.2%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$4,632,803 Vol.
$4,632,803 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$1,390,223 Vol.
1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
$586,618 Vol.
7%
Aucun changement
$1,010,849 Vol.
88%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
$895,208 Vol.
5%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
$749,920 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% target range amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal and stable unemployment at 4.4%. Policymakers' dot plot signals just one cut in 2026 overall, with Vice Chair Barr's March 26 remarks emphasizing a hold-steady posture to evaluate evolving data like April CPI on the 10th. Modest odds for a 25 basis point decrease (6.5%) or increase (5.1%) capture tail risks from labor softening or geopolitical inflation pressures, but absent major shocks, markets anticipate policy continuity.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$4,632,803Date de fin
Jun 17, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% target range amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal and stable unemployment at 4.4%. Policymakers' dot plot signals just one cut in 2026 overall, with Vice Chair Barr's March 26 remarks emphasizing a hold-steady posture to evaluate evolving data like April CPI on the 10th. Modest odds for a 25 basis point decrease (6.5%) or increase (5.1%) capture tail risks from labor softening or geopolitical inflation pressures, but absent major shocks, markets anticipate policy continuity.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$4,632,803Date de fin
Jun 17, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% target range amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal and stable unemployment at 4.4%. Policymakers' dot plot signals just one cut in 2026 overall, with Vice Chair Barr's March 26 remarks emphasizing a hold-steady posture to evaluate evolving data like April CPI on the 10th. Modest odds for a 25 basis point decrease (6.5%) or increase (5.1%) capture tail risks from labor softening or geopolitical inflation pressures, but absent major shocks, markets anticipate policy continuity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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