Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 90.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, driven by the resilient U.S. labor market and persistent inflation pressures. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—exceeding forecasts—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, reinforcing the Fed's steady 3.5%-3.75% target after its March hold and dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026. Elevated oil prices near $100 have amplified energy-driven inflation risks, sidelining near-term easing bets. This strong positioning could face challenges from softer April jobs data, cooling CPI trajectory, or dovish FOMC signals at the April 28-29 gathering, potentially lifting cut odds above 10%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Fed en juin ?
Décision de la Fed en juin ?
Aucun changement 91%
Baisse de 25 points de base 6%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 3.4%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$5,415,770 Vol.
$5,415,770 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
6%
Aucun changement
91%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
3%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Aucun changement 91%
Baisse de 25 points de base 6%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 3.4%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$5,415,770 Vol.
$5,415,770 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
6%
Aucun changement
91%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
3%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 90.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, driven by the resilient U.S. labor market and persistent inflation pressures. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—exceeding forecasts—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, reinforcing the Fed's steady 3.5%-3.75% target after its March hold and dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026. Elevated oil prices near $100 have amplified energy-driven inflation risks, sidelining near-term easing bets. This strong positioning could face challenges from softer April jobs data, cooling CPI trajectory, or dovish FOMC signals at the April 28-29 gathering, potentially lifting cut odds above 10%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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