Polymarket traders price an 86.5% implied probability of no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range reaffirmed in the March 18 statement, alongside a dot plot projecting just one rate cut later in the year. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year—core at 2.5%—supporting policy patience despite softer February nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs) that lifted unemployment to 4.4%. Geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict have further curbed easing bets, dropping cumulative 2026 cut odds below 30% per CME FedWatch data. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and the April FOMC.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Fed en juin ?
Décision de la Fed en juin ?
Aucun changement 87%
Baisse de 25 points de base 7%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 5.7%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base 1.5%
$4,083,831 Vol.
$4,083,831 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
2%
Baisse de 25 points de base
7%
Aucun changement
87%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
6%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Aucun changement 87%
Baisse de 25 points de base 7%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 5.7%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base 1.5%
$4,083,831 Vol.
$4,083,831 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$988,090 Vol.
2%
Baisse de 25 points de base
$565,948 Vol.
7%
Aucun changement
$972,193 Vol.
87%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
$843,753 Vol.
6%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
$713,848 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 86.5% implied probability of no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range reaffirmed in the March 18 statement, alongside a dot plot projecting just one rate cut later in the year. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year—core at 2.5%—supporting policy patience despite softer February nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs) that lifted unemployment to 4.4%. Geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict have further curbed easing bets, dropping cumulative 2026 cut odds below 30% per CME FedWatch data. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and the April FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$4,083,831Date de fin
Jun 17, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 86.5% implied probability of no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range reaffirmed in the March 18 statement, alongside a dot plot projecting just one rate cut later in the year. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year—core at 2.5%—supporting policy patience despite softer February nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs) that lifted unemployment to 4.4%. Geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict have further curbed easing bets, dropping cumulative 2026 cut odds below 30% per CME FedWatch data. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and the April FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$4,083,831Date de fin
Jun 17, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price an 86.5% implied probability of no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range reaffirmed in the March 18 statement, alongside a dot plot projecting just one rate cut later in the year. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year—core at 2.5%—supporting policy patience despite softer February nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs) that lifted unemployment to 4.4%. Geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict have further curbed easing bets, dropping cumulative 2026 cut odds below 30% per CME FedWatch data. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and the April FOMC.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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