Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's patient stance following its March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. The updated dot plot projects just one rate cut for all of 2026 amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market, with nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declining 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%. Chair Powell emphasized the Fed is "well positioned to wait," tempering near-term cut expectations despite modest downside risks; slim odds for a 25 basis point decrease (6.5%) or increase (5.5%) hinge on upcoming March jobs data and April CPI release ahead of the May meeting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Fed en juin ?
Décision de la Fed en juin ?
Aucun changement 87%
Baisse de 25 points de base 7%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 5.5%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base 1.4%
$4,218,468 Vol.
$4,218,468 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
7%
Aucun changement
87%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
5%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Aucun changement 87%
Baisse de 25 points de base 7%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 5.5%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base 1.4%
$4,218,468 Vol.
$4,218,468 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$1,122,230 Vol.
1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
$567,292 Vol.
7%
Aucun changement
$972,333 Vol.
87%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
$848,572 Vol.
5%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
$720,150 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's patient stance following its March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. The updated dot plot projects just one rate cut for all of 2026 amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market, with nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declining 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%. Chair Powell emphasized the Fed is "well positioned to wait," tempering near-term cut expectations despite modest downside risks; slim odds for a 25 basis point decrease (6.5%) or increase (5.5%) hinge on upcoming March jobs data and April CPI release ahead of the May meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$4,218,468Date de fin
Jun 17, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's patient stance following its March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. The updated dot plot projects just one rate cut for all of 2026 amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market, with nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declining 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%. Chair Powell emphasized the Fed is "well positioned to wait," tempering near-term cut expectations despite modest downside risks; slim odds for a 25 basis point decrease (6.5%) or increase (5.5%) hinge on upcoming March jobs data and April CPI release ahead of the May meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$4,218,468Date de fin
Jun 17, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's patient stance following its March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. The updated dot plot projects just one rate cut for all of 2026 amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market, with nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declining 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%. Chair Powell emphasized the Fed is "well positioned to wait," tempering near-term cut expectations despite modest downside risks; slim odds for a 25 basis point decrease (6.5%) or increase (5.5%) hinge on upcoming March jobs data and April CPI release ahead of the May meeting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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