Polymarket traders assign a 96.7% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the second consecutive meeting amid Chair Powell's assessment that current policy remains appropriate for maximum employment and price stability. February 2026 CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, offsetting softer labor data with nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%, reinforcing a patient stance despite the dot plot signaling one cut later in 2026. Upside risks to this consensus include hotter March CPI due April 10 or unexpectedly weak March payrolls early next week, potentially challenging the hold.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Fed en avril ?
Décision de la Fed en avril ?
Aucun changement 96.6%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus 1.8%
réduction de 25 points de base 1.0%
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$37,173,823 Vol.
$37,173,823 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
réduction de 25 points de base
1%
Aucun changement
97%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus
2%
Aucun changement 96.6%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus 1.8%
réduction de 25 points de base 1.0%
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$37,173,823 Vol.
$37,173,823 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$12,846,471 Vol.
<1%
réduction de 25 points de base
$7,659,190 Vol.
1%
Aucun changement
$7,748,434 Vol.
97%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus
$8,920,177 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 96.7% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the second consecutive meeting amid Chair Powell's assessment that current policy remains appropriate for maximum employment and price stability. February 2026 CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, offsetting softer labor data with nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%, reinforcing a patient stance despite the dot plot signaling one cut later in 2026. Upside risks to this consensus include hotter March CPI due April 10 or unexpectedly weak March payrolls early next week, potentially challenging the hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$37,173,823Date de fin
Apr 29, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 96.7% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the second consecutive meeting amid Chair Powell's assessment that current policy remains appropriate for maximum employment and price stability. February 2026 CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, offsetting softer labor data with nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%, reinforcing a patient stance despite the dot plot signaling one cut later in 2026. Upside risks to this consensus include hotter March CPI due April 10 or unexpectedly weak March payrolls early next week, potentially challenging the hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$37,173,823Date de fin
Apr 29, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 96.7% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the second consecutive meeting amid Chair Powell's assessment that current policy remains appropriate for maximum employment and price stability. February 2026 CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, offsetting softer labor data with nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%, reinforcing a patient stance despite the dot plot signaling one cut later in 2026. Upside risks to this consensus include hotter March CPI due April 10 or unexpectedly weak March payrolls early next week, potentially challenging the hold.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes