Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's net worth falling in the 640-650 billion range as of March 31, 2026, driven by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index's authoritative daily update confirming $644 billion—reflecting a $11.7 billion (1.8%) single-day gain and $24.2 billion year-to-date increase. This positioning stems from Tesla's market cap hitting $1.39 trillion, bolstering Musk's ~11% stake plus 304 million exercisable options, alongside his 44% holding in the SpaceX-xAI combined entity valued at $1.03 trillion post-February merger, offset by modest liabilities like pledged shares. While near-certain, rare index revisions for private asset discounts or loan adjustments could theoretically challenge resolution, though traders price negligible risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour640-650 milliards 100.0%
<640 mds <1%
650-660 mds <1%
660-670 milliards <1%
$1,270,803 Vol.
$1,270,803 Vol.
<640 mds
Non
640-650 milliards
Oui
650-660 mds
Non
660-670 milliards
Non
670-680 milliards
Non
680-690 milliards
Non
690-700 milliards
Non
700-710 mds
Non
710 milliards+
Non
640-650 milliards 100.0%
<640 mds <1%
650-660 mds <1%
660-670 milliards <1%
$1,270,803 Vol.
$1,270,803 Vol.
<640 mds
Non
640-650 milliards
Oui
650-660 mds
Non
660-670 milliards
Non
670-680 milliards
Non
680-690 milliards
Non
690-700 milliards
Non
700-710 mds
Non
710 milliards+
Non
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's net worth falling in the 640-650 billion range as of March 31, 2026, driven by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index's authoritative daily update confirming $644 billion—reflecting a $11.7 billion (1.8%) single-day gain and $24.2 billion year-to-date increase. This positioning stems from Tesla's market cap hitting $1.39 trillion, bolstering Musk's ~11% stake plus 304 million exercisable options, alongside his 44% holding in the SpaceX-xAI combined entity valued at $1.03 trillion post-February merger, offset by modest liabilities like pledged shares. While near-certain, rare index revisions for private asset discounts or loan adjustments could theoretically challenge resolution, though traders price negligible risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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