Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 99% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 95% to advance from California's top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District on June 2, 2026, reflecting the district's D+17 partisan lean and their fundraising dominance—Thompson with $2.9 million raised and Jones at $3.2 million as of late March. A fragmented Republican field of five candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, holds minimal cash on hand under $15,000 each, limiting their threat in this Democratic stronghold redrawn narrower post-2025 mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50. Absent polls, the market anticipates both Democrats proceeding to the November general amid low-volume trading.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$20,755 Vol.
2 juin 2026
Mike Thompson
99%
Eric Jones
95%
Trevor Merrell
15%
Heath Fulkerson
9%
Sharon Brown
6%
Mandy Ghusar
6%
Laurie MacKenzie
4%
John Wesley Tyler
45%
$20,755 Vol.
Mike Thompson
$6,502 Vol.
99%
Eric Jones
$4,052 Vol.
95%
Trevor Merrell
$6,288 Vol.
15%
Heath Fulkerson
$252 Vol.
9%
Sharon Brown
$1,605 Vol.
6%
Mandy Ghusar
$728 Vol.
6%
Laurie MacKenzie
$710 Vol.
4%
John Wesley Tyler
$618 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 99% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 95% to advance from California's top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District on June 2, 2026, reflecting the district's D+17 partisan lean and their fundraising dominance—Thompson with $2.9 million raised and Jones at $3.2 million as of late March. A fragmented Republican field of five candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, holds minimal cash on hand under $15,000 each, limiting their threat in this Democratic stronghold redrawn narrower post-2025 mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50. Absent polls, the market anticipates both Democrats proceeding to the November general amid low-volume trading.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Marché ouvert : Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$20,755Date de fin
2 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 99% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 95% to advance from California's top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District on June 2, 2026, reflecting the district's D+17 partisan lean and their fundraising dominance—Thompson with $2.9 million raised and Jones at $3.2 million as of late March. A fragmented Republican field of five candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, holds minimal cash on hand under $15,000 each, limiting their threat in this Democratic stronghold redrawn narrower post-2025 mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50. Absent polls, the market anticipates both Democrats proceeding to the November general amid low-volume trading.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$20,755Date de fin
2 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 99% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 95% to advance from California's top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District on June 2, 2026, reflecting the district's D+17 partisan lean and their fundraising dominance—Thompson with $2.9 million raised and Jones at $3.2 million as of late March. A fragmented Republican field of five candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, holds minimal cash on hand under $15,000 each, limiting their threat in this Democratic stronghold redrawn narrower post-2025 mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50. Absent polls, the market anticipates both Democrats proceeding to the November general amid low-volume trading.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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