Persistent Red Sea security threats tied to Houthi militant activity have kept the vast majority of container carriers rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in Suez Canal container transits remaining roughly 60% below pre-crisis 2023 levels through early 2026. January 2026 recorded just 150 such passages—the weakest January in a decade—while December 2025 saw 158, with carriers pausing announced returns after fragile ceasefires failed to restore full confidence. Even limited service restarts have produced minimal volume gains, far short of the roughly 333 monthly average needed to reach 2,000 transits over six months. Traders assign near-certainty to the “No” outcome because sustained avoidance by major lines reflects entrenched risk assessments rather than temporary disruption. A rapid, verified de-escalation enabling phased large-scale resumption before late June could still alter the tally, though no such shift has materialized.