Morena holds the leading trader consensus at 42% for the Yucatán state congress election scheduled for June 6, 2027, ahead of PAN at 26.5% and smaller parties below 1%. The race remains competitive because the process only began in early November 2026, with candidate nominations, potential coalitions, and voter preferences still fluid seven months out. Morena currently dominates the sitting legislature, yet recent local surveys show PAN ahead in Mérida, its traditional urban base. Key variables that could widen gaps include final party slates for the 21 majority and 14 proportional seats, turnout patterns across districts, and any shifts in state or national political alignments before voting day.