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Finance·Indicies

Will KOSPI (KS11) close above __ end of Q1?

Market icon
Finance·Indicies

Will KOSPI (KS11) close above __ end of Q1?

$25,709 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$25,709 Vol.

Polymarket

4500

$3,660 Vol.

Yes

4750

$4,288 Vol.

Yes

5000

$4,635 Vol.

Yes

5250

$3,264 Vol.

No

5500

$1,326 Vol.

No

5750

$2,700 Vol.

No

6000

$1,917 Vol.

No

6500

$2,245 Vol.

No

7000

$1,675 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) on the final trading day of the first quarter of 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. The closing price for the final day of trading on or before this date will be used to resolve this market. If the final trading day of the quarter is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/history/, published under "Historical Data."The KOSPI index (^KS11) closed Q1 2026 at 5,052.46 on March 31, down 4.26% that day amid escalating geopolitical tensions over Iran and a weakening Korean won surpassing 1,530/USD, which pressured export-heavy semiconductor giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. This marked a sharp retreat from February peaks above 6,000, fueled earlier by AI-driven memory chip demand and robust export growth, delivering strong YTD gains despite March's worst monthly performance globally. Trader sentiment reflected volatility in the semiconductor sector (over 40% index weight), with market-implied odds capturing risks from currency dynamics and global risk appetite. Key watch: Bank of Korea rate decision April 18 and Q1 earnings from chipmakers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) on the final trading day of the first quarter of 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. The closing price for the final day of trading on or before this date will be used to resolve this market.

If the final trading day of the quarter is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/history/, published under "Historical Data."
Volume
$25,709
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 5:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) on the final trading day of the first quarter of 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. The closing price for the final day of trading on or before this date will be used to resolve this market. If the final trading day of the quarter is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/history/, published under "Historical Data."

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) on the final trading day of the first quarter of 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. The closing price for the final day of trading on or before this date will be used to resolve this market. If the final trading day of the quarter is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/history/, published under "Historical Data."The KOSPI index (^KS11) closed Q1 2026 at 5,052.46 on March 31, down 4.26% that day amid escalating geopolitical tensions over Iran and a weakening Korean won surpassing 1,530/USD, which pressured export-heavy semiconductor giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. This marked a sharp retreat from February peaks above 6,000, fueled earlier by AI-driven memory chip demand and robust export growth, delivering strong YTD gains despite March's worst monthly performance globally. Trader sentiment reflected volatility in the semiconductor sector (over 40% index weight), with market-implied odds capturing risks from currency dynamics and global risk appetite. Key watch: Bank of Korea rate decision April 18 and Q1 earnings from chipmakers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) on the final trading day of the first quarter of 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. The closing price for the final day of trading on or before this date will be used to resolve this market.

If the final trading day of the quarter is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/history/, published under "Historical Data."
Volume
$25,709
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 5:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) on the final trading day of the first quarter of 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The first quarter of 2026 ends on March 31, 2026. The closing price for the final day of trading on or before this date will be used to resolve this market. If the final trading day of the quarter is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/history/, published under "Historical Data."

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will KOSPI (KS11) close above __ end of Q1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4500" at 100%, followed by "4750" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will KOSPI (KS11) close above __ end of Q1?" has generated $25.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will KOSPI (KS11) close above __ end of Q1?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will KOSPI (KS11) close above __ end of Q1?" is "4500" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4750" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will KOSPI (KS11) close above __ end of Q1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.