Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September?
$129,383 Vol.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike against an oil or gas facility, inclusive of all oil rigs, refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on the soil or within the maritime territory of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE), between June 21 and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes and aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Iranian missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory based on a consensus of credible reporting will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes and aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Iranian missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory based on a consensus of credible reporting will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Created At: Jun 22, 2025, 1:48 AM UTC
Volume
$129,383End Date
Aug 31, 2025Created At
Jun 22, 2025, 1:48 AM UTCResolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
$129,383 Vol.
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September?
About
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike against an oil or gas facility, inclusive of all oil rigs, refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on the soil or within the maritime territory of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE), between June 21 and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes and aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Iranian missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory based on a consensus of credible reporting will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes and aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Iranian missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory based on a consensus of credible reporting will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$129,383End Date
Aug 31, 2025Created At
Jun 22, 2025, 1:48 AM UTCResolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
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