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Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?

Market icon

Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$957,512 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$957,512 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$957,512
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 10, 2026, 8:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$957,512
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 10, 2026, 8:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?" has generated $957.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.