Market icon
Tech·Gemini 3

Which company has the #3 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

Market icon
Tech·Gemini 3

Which company has the #3 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

Ended: Mar 31

Apr 30

Ended: Mar 31

Apr 30

Google 100.0%

OpenAI <1%

Z.ai <1%

DeepSeek <1%

Polymarket

$428,694 Vol.

Google 100.0%

OpenAI <1%

Z.ai <1%

DeepSeek <1%

Polymarket

$428,694 Vol.

Market icon

Google

$45,746 Vol.

Yes

Market icon

OpenAI

$41,027 Vol.

No

Market icon

Z.ai

$131,881 Vol.

No

Market icon

DeepSeek

$39,245 Vol.

No

Market icon

Mistral

$16,916 Vol.

No

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Anthropic

$59,639 Vol.

No

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Alibaba

$25,813 Vol.

No

Market icon

xAI

$35,445 Vol.

No

Market icon

Moonshot

$20,342 Vol.

No

Market icon

Meituan

$12,639 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Google holding the #3 spot on LM Arena's Text leaderboard (Style Control On) by March 31, 2026, driven by Gemini 3.1 Pro's entrenched position after its late-March release. This setup emerged from intense blind human preference battles over the past week, where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 secured #1 and #2 through superior reasoning and coding prowess, leaving Gemini 3.1 Pro unchallenged at #3 with a robust Arena Score gap. Style Control mitigates presentation biases, emphasizing substantive AI capabilities. DeepSeek V3.2 and xAI's Grok trail due to weaker recent battle outcomes. Realistic challenges—a surprise vote swing or unannounced tweak—are improbable given the snapshot resolution timing and low contender momentum.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$428,694
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Google holding the #3 spot on LM Arena's Text leaderboard (Style Control On) by March 31, 2026, driven by Gemini 3.1 Pro's entrenched position after its late-March release. This setup emerged from intense blind human preference battles over the past week, where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 secured #1 and #2 through superior reasoning and coding prowess, leaving Gemini 3.1 Pro unchallenged at #3 with a robust Arena Score gap. Style Control mitigates presentation biases, emphasizing substantive AI capabilities. DeepSeek V3.2 and xAI's Grok trail due to weaker recent battle outcomes. Realistic challenges—a surprise vote swing or unannounced tweak—are improbable given the snapshot resolution timing and low contender momentum.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$428,694
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has the #3 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Google" at 100%, followed by "OpenAI" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which company has the #3 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)" has generated $428.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which company has the #3 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has the #3 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)" is "Google" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "OpenAI" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has the #3 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.