The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on subcritical experiments and the Stockpile Stewardship Program to certify the safety and reliability of its arsenal. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing tests "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted immediate clarifications from administration officials that no full-yield explosive tests were planned, with any activities limited to non-explosive or delivery-system evaluations. The February 2026 expiration of the New START Treaty has heightened discussions of nuclear posture and potential responses to Russian and Chinese activities, yet technical readiness timelines of 24–36 months and longstanding policy commitments continue to constrain near-term explosive testing. Traders assess these factors alongside any future presidential directives or legislative actions within the relevant resolution windows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$668,704 Vol.
30 juin 2026
30 juin 2026
2%
30 septembre 2026
5%
31 décembre 2026
9%
$668,704 Vol.
30 juin 2026
$40,857 Vol.
2%
30 septembre 2026
$7,044 Vol.
5%
31 décembre 2026
$10,584 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on subcritical experiments and the Stockpile Stewardship Program to certify the safety and reliability of its arsenal. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing tests "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted immediate clarifications from administration officials that no full-yield explosive tests were planned, with any activities limited to non-explosive or delivery-system evaluations. The February 2026 expiration of the New START Treaty has heightened discussions of nuclear posture and potential responses to Russian and Chinese activities, yet technical readiness timelines of 24–36 months and longstanding policy commitments continue to constrain near-term explosive testing. Traders assess these factors alongside any future presidential directives or legislative actions within the relevant resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$668,704Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on subcritical experiments and the Stockpile Stewardship Program to certify the safety and reliability of its arsenal. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing tests "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted immediate clarifications from administration officials that no full-yield explosive tests were planned, with any activities limited to non-explosive or delivery-system evaluations. The February 2026 expiration of the New START Treaty has heightened discussions of nuclear posture and potential responses to Russian and Chinese activities, yet technical readiness timelines of 24–36 months and longstanding policy commitments continue to constrain near-term explosive testing. Traders assess these factors alongside any future presidential directives or legislative actions within the relevant resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$668,704Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on subcritical experiments and the Stockpile Stewardship Program to certify the safety and reliability of its arsenal. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing tests "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted immediate clarifications from administration officials that no full-yield explosive tests were planned, with any activities limited to non-explosive or delivery-system evaluations. The February 2026 expiration of the New START Treaty has heightened discussions of nuclear posture and potential responses to Russian and Chinese activities, yet technical readiness timelines of 24–36 months and longstanding policy commitments continue to constrain near-term explosive testing. Traders assess these factors alongside any future presidential directives or legislative actions within the relevant resolution windows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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