Market icon

US-China trade deal before June?

$3,453,588 Vol.

>99% chance

Rules

Additional context

Updated May 9

Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.

The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between April 8, and May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Volume

$3,453,588

End Date

May 31, 2025

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Beware of external links.

$3,453,588 Vol.

Market icon

US-China trade deal before June?

>99% chance

About

Additional context

Updated May 9

Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.

The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between April 8, and May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Volume

$3,453,588

End Date

May 31, 2025

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes