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Geopolitics·Trump

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Trump

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

$222,276 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026
Polymarket

$222,276 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$18,859 Vol.

2%

June 30

$58,076 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ukraine's ongoing martial law legally bars elections or referendums, with the Central Election Commission requiring a full ceasefire followed by at least six months for legal, logistical, and security preparations, as reiterated by officials on March 23. President Zelenskyy has rejected wartime votes, insisting they occur only after the war ends, defying earlier February reports of US-pressured spring plans for presidential elections alongside a peace referendum. Recent catalysts include a March 25 Reuters report on US security guarantees conditional on Kyiv ceding Donbas, March 20 negotiators departing for Washington talks, and a KIIS poll showing 61% support for a referendum on territorial compromises tied to EU membership, reconstruction, and guarantees. Absent a ceasefire breakthrough, trader consensus views near-term scheduling as unlikely amid stalled diplomacy.

Ukraine's ongoing martial law legally bars elections or referendums, with the Central Election Commission requiring a full ceasefire followed by at least six months for legal, logistical, and security preparations, as reiterated by officials on March 23. President Zelenskyy has rejected wartime votes, insisting they occur only after the war ends, defying earlier February reports of US-pressured spring plans for presidential elections alongside a peace referendum. Recent catalysts include a March 25 Reuters report on US security guarantees conditional on Kyiv ceding Donbas, March 20 negotiators departing for Washington talks, and a KIIS poll showing 61% support for a referendum on territorial compromises tied to EU membership, reconstruction, and guarantees. Absent a ceasefire breakthrough, trader consensus views near-term scheduling as unlikely amid stalled diplomacy.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ukraine's ongoing martial law legally bars elections or referendums, with the Central Election Commission requiring a full ceasefire followed by at least six months for legal, logistical, and security preparations, as reiterated by officials on March 23. President Zelenskyy has rejected wartime votes, insisting they occur only after the war ends, defying earlier February reports of US-pressured spring plans for presidential elections alongside a peace referendum. Recent catalysts include a March 25 Reuters report on US security guarantees conditional on Kyiv ceding Donbas, March 20 negotiators departing for Washington talks, and a KIIS poll showing 61% support for a referendum on territorial compromises tied to EU membership, reconstruction, and guarantees. Absent a ceasefire breakthrough, trader consensus views near-term scheduling as unlikely amid stalled diplomacy.

Ukraine's ongoing martial law legally bars elections or referendums, with the Central Election Commission requiring a full ceasefire followed by at least six months for legal, logistical, and security preparations, as reiterated by officials on March 23. President Zelenskyy has rejected wartime votes, insisting they occur only after the war ends, defying earlier February reports of US-pressured spring plans for presidential elections alongside a peace referendum. Recent catalysts include a March 25 Reuters report on US security guarantees conditional on Kyiv ceding Donbas, March 20 negotiators departing for Washington talks, and a KIIS poll showing 61% support for a referendum on territorial compromises tied to EU membership, reconstruction, and guarantees. Absent a ceasefire breakthrough, trader consensus views near-term scheduling as unlikely amid stalled diplomacy.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30" at 11%, followed by "March 31" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?" has generated $222.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 26, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?" is "June 30" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.