Tesla (TSLA) shares closed April 2 at $360.59—firmly within the $360-$365 bin commanding 99.7% market-implied probability for the week of March 30 close today—reflecting trader consensus on minimal volatility into the final session amid stabilized trading post-Q1 delivery report. Deliveries of 358,000 vehicles fell short of 365,000 consensus estimates, triggering a 5.4% drop from April 1's $381.26 peak, compounded by EV pricing pressures and U.S. tax credit expirations; earlier recovery from March 30's $355.28 low highlighted resilient sentiment. With real capital at stake, the wisdom of crowds prices low risk of breakout, though surprise macroeconomic data, sector selloff, or late technical momentum could push shares outside the range before close. Q1 earnings loom as next catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$360-$365 99.6%
<$350 <1%
$350-$355 <1%
$355-$360 <1%
$34,245 Vol.
$34,245 Vol.
<$350
<1%
$350-$355
<1%
$355-$360
<1%
$360-$365
100%
$365-$370
<1%
$370-$375
<1%
$375-$380
<1%
$380-$385
<1%
$385-$390
<1%
$390-$395
<1%
>$395
<1%
$360-$365 99.6%
<$350 <1%
$350-$355 <1%
$355-$360 <1%
$34,245 Vol.
$34,245 Vol.
<$350
<1%
$350-$355
<1%
$355-$360
<1%
$360-$365
100%
$365-$370
<1%
$370-$375
<1%
$375-$380
<1%
$380-$385
<1%
$385-$390
<1%
$390-$395
<1%
>$395
<1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla (TSLA) shares closed April 2 at $360.59—firmly within the $360-$365 bin commanding 99.7% market-implied probability for the week of March 30 close today—reflecting trader consensus on minimal volatility into the final session amid stabilized trading post-Q1 delivery report. Deliveries of 358,000 vehicles fell short of 365,000 consensus estimates, triggering a 5.4% drop from April 1's $381.26 peak, compounded by EV pricing pressures and U.S. tax credit expirations; earlier recovery from March 30's $355.28 low highlighted resilient sentiment. With real capital at stake, the wisdom of crowds prices low risk of breakout, though surprise macroeconomic data, sector selloff, or late technical momentum could push shares outside the range before close. Q1 earnings loom as next catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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