Q1 S&P 500 Performance

Name: Q1 S&P 500 Performance
Start: 2026-01-14T22:55:33.015Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Economy·Indicies

Q1 S&P 500 Performance

<0% 96%

0-2% 2.1%

2-3% 1.1%

4-5% <1%

$228,461 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

<0%

$31,482 Vol.

96%

0-2%

$10,918 Vol.

2-3%

$6,204 Vol.

3-4%

$18,073 Vol.

<1%

4-5%

$20,847 Vol.

5-6%

$44,128 Vol.

6-8%

$56,043 Vol.

8-10%

$18,774 Vol.

10%+

$21,993 Vol.

<1%

<0% 96%

0-2% 2.1%

2-3% 1.1%

4-5% <1%

$228,461 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

<0%

$31,482 Vol.

96%

0-2%

$10,918 Vol.

2-3%

$6,204 Vol.

3-4%

$18,073 Vol.

<1%

4-5%

$20,847 Vol.

5-6%

$44,128 Vol.

6-8%

$56,043 Vol.

8-10%

$18,774 Vol.

10%+

$21,993 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).

Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price in a negative Q1 S&P 500 return, with 95.5% implied probability on <0% performance, reflecting consensus around persistent high interest rates and fading momentum from 2024's AI-driven rally. Key drivers include the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance—holding rates at 4.25-4.50% amid sticky inflation above 2% target—and weakening consumer spending signals from retail sales data, pressuring high-valuation tech giants that dominate the index. Corporate earnings season has underwhelmed, with forward P/E ratios near 22x compressing amid recession fears. Upside challenges could emerge from surprise Fed pivot or blowout Q1 GDP prints exceeding 2%, but historical Q1 volatility suggests limited rebound potential absent major catalysts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 22, 2026, 11:23 AM UTC

Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?

31%

S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?

Will the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) close above 4750 on the final trading day of Q1 2026?

99%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Q1 S&P 500 Performance" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<0%" at 96%, followed by "0-2%" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Q1 S&P 500 Performance" has generated $228.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Q1 S&P 500 Performance," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Q1 S&P 500 Performance" is "<0%" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "0-2%" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Q1 S&P 500 Performance" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Q1 S&P 500 Performance." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $228.5K traded on “Q1 S&P 500 Performance,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Q1 S&P 500 Performance," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 96¢ for "<0%" in the "Q1 S&P 500 Performance" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 96% chance that "<0%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 96¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 4¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Q1 S&P 500 Performance" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Q1 S&P 500 Performance" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Q1 S&P 500 Performance." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Q1 S&P 500 Performance

Q1 S&P 500 Performance

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Frequently Asked Questions

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What does a price of 96¢ for "<0%" mean?

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