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OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

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Tech·Chatgpt

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

NEW
Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$3,406 Vol.

Polymarket

50%+

$3,406 Vol.

31%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any OpenAI GPT model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.OpenAI's GPT-5.4, released in early March 2026, achieved 39.8% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam—a 2,500-question benchmark of expert-level challenges across math, sciences, and humanities—without tools, marking an 8% gain over GPT-5.2 in two months and surpassing prior state-of-the-art models like Claude Opus 4.6 at around 34%. This leap underscores accelerating AI scaling in reasoning and knowledge synthesis, fueling trader consensus on potential 50%+ thresholds by June 30 amid competitive pressure from Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and xAI. However, benchmark saturation risks and unproven scaling limits introduce uncertainty, with no confirmed GPT-5.5 timeline; watch for developer previews or capability demos that could shift market-implied odds.

OpenAI's GPT-5.4, released in early March 2026, achieved 39.8% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam—a 2,500-question benchmark of expert-level challenges across math, sciences, and humanities—without tools, marking an 8% gain over GPT-5.2 in two months and surpassing prior state-of-the-art models like Claude Opus 4.6 at around 34%. This leap underscores accelerating AI scaling in reasoning and knowledge synthesis, fueling trader consensus on potential 50%+ thresholds by June 30 amid competitive pressure from Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and xAI. However, benchmark saturation risks and unproven scaling limits introduce uncertainty, with no confirmed GPT-5.5 timeline; watch for developer previews or capability demos that could shift market-implied odds.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any OpenAI GPT model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.OpenAI's GPT-5.4, released in early March 2026, achieved 39.8% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam—a 2,500-question benchmark of expert-level challenges across math, sciences, and humanities—without tools, marking an 8% gain over GPT-5.2 in two months and surpassing prior state-of-the-art models like Claude Opus 4.6 at around 34%. This leap underscores accelerating AI scaling in reasoning and knowledge synthesis, fueling trader consensus on potential 50%+ thresholds by June 30 amid competitive pressure from Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and xAI. However, benchmark saturation risks and unproven scaling limits introduce uncertainty, with no confirmed GPT-5.5 timeline; watch for developer previews or capability demos that could shift market-implied odds.

OpenAI's GPT-5.4, released in early March 2026, achieved 39.8% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam—a 2,500-question benchmark of expert-level challenges across math, sciences, and humanities—without tools, marking an 8% gain over GPT-5.2 in two months and surpassing prior state-of-the-art models like Claude Opus 4.6 at around 34%. This leap underscores accelerating AI scaling in reasoning and knowledge synthesis, fueling trader consensus on potential 50%+ thresholds by June 30 amid competitive pressure from Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and xAI. However, benchmark saturation risks and unproven scaling limits introduce uncertainty, with no confirmed GPT-5.5 timeline; watch for developer previews or capability demos that could shift market-implied odds.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "35%+" at 100%, followed by "40%+" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" is "35%+" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "40%+" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.