Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no James Bond actor being chosen soon, with a 70% implied probability reflecting producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson's deliberate reinvention post-Daniel Craig's 2021 exit in No Time to Die. Ongoing script development—rumored involvement from Steven Knight—and lack of a confirmed director have stalled casting for the untitled Bond 26, now eyeing a 2028 release, as insider reports in late February dismissed big-name rumors as "bullsh*t" with zero movement. Callum Turner leads at 19.5% after early March buzz from unverified sources doubled his odds briefly, fueled by his rising profile in Masters of the Air and Berlinale coyness on the topic, while Jacob Elordi's 3.4% stems from audition whispers. Expect volatility until late 2026 announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNext James Bond actor?
Next James Bond actor?
No Bond chosen 70%
Callum Turner 20%
Jacob Elordi 3.4%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson 2.4%
$1,598,102 Vol.
$1,598,102 Vol.
No Bond chosen
70%
Callum Turner
20%
Jacob Elordi
3%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
2%
Henry Cavill
2%
Jack Lowdon
1%
James Norton
1%
Harris Dickinson
1%
Josh O'Connor
1%
Paul Mescal
1%
Theo James
1%
Pierce Brosnan
1%
Tom Hardy
<1%
Tom Holland
<1%
Robert James-Collier
<1%
No Bond chosen 70%
Callum Turner 20%
Jacob Elordi 3.4%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson 2.4%
$1,598,102 Vol.
$1,598,102 Vol.
No Bond chosen
70%
Callum Turner
20%
Jacob Elordi
3%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
2%
Henry Cavill
2%
Jack Lowdon
1%
James Norton
1%
Harris Dickinson
1%
Josh O'Connor
1%
Paul Mescal
1%
Theo James
1%
Pierce Brosnan
1%
Tom Hardy
<1%
Tom Holland
<1%
Robert James-Collier
<1%
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2025, 6:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no James Bond actor being chosen soon, with a 70% implied probability reflecting producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson's deliberate reinvention post-Daniel Craig's 2021 exit in No Time to Die. Ongoing script development—rumored involvement from Steven Knight—and lack of a confirmed director have stalled casting for the untitled Bond 26, now eyeing a 2028 release, as insider reports in late February dismissed big-name rumors as "bullsh*t" with zero movement. Callum Turner leads at 19.5% after early March buzz from unverified sources doubled his odds briefly, fueled by his rising profile in Masters of the Air and Berlinale coyness on the topic, while Jacob Elordi's 3.4% stems from audition whispers. Expect volatility until late 2026 announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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