Morena maintains a dominant position in the Nayarit state congress market at 90.5% implied probability, reflecting recent polling trends ahead of the June 2027 elections that renew all 30 legislative seats alongside the governorship and municipalities. Surveys from October 2026 show the Morena-PT-PVEM alliance leading by roughly 30 points in party preference and candidate hypotheticals, supported by coordinated state organization and continuity from prior legislative gains. Opposition parties including PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano register single-digit or low-teens support in the same data. Trader pricing aligns with this sustained advantage in early polling and coalition dynamics. Shifts in final candidate selection, new alliances, or unexpected national political developments could narrow the gap before the vote.