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Named storm forms before hurricane season?

Market icon

Named storm forms before hurricane season?

May 31

May 31

39% chance
Polymarket

$324,501 Vol.

39% chance
Polymarket

$324,501 Vol.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.With just days until the Atlantic hurricane season's official June 1 start, the National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Outlook shows no imminent threats, assigning 0% development probability in the next 48 hours and only 10-20% over seven days to scattered tropical waves in the Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic. Strong upper-level wind shear and dry mid-level air continue suppressing organization, aligning with trader consensus implying 62.5% odds against a pre-season named storm. Historically rare—only eight such events since 1950—this positioning reflects model agreement on minimal activity, though an unexpected surge in convection could shift dynamics before resolution. Daily NHC updates through Friday will be pivotal.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$324,501
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.With just days until the Atlantic hurricane season's official June 1 start, the National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Outlook shows no imminent threats, assigning 0% development probability in the next 48 hours and only 10-20% over seven days to scattered tropical waves in the Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic. Strong upper-level wind shear and dry mid-level air continue suppressing organization, aligning with trader consensus implying 62.5% odds against a pre-season named storm. Historically rare—only eight such events since 1950—this positioning reflects model agreement on minimal activity, though an unexpected surge in convection could shift dynamics before resolution. Daily NHC updates through Friday will be pivotal.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$324,501
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Named storm forms before hurricane season?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 39% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 39¢, the market collectively assigns a 39% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Named storm forms before hurricane season?" has generated $324.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Named storm forms before hurricane season?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Named storm forms before hurricane season?" is 39% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 39% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Named storm forms before hurricane season?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.